UK retail sales stop Sterling’s slide
Daily Currency Update
The Pound extended its losses yesterday, with GBP/USD once again testing the 1.33 level and GBP/EUR dipping as low as 1.146, as traders priced in expectations of weaker UK retail sales data. However, Sterling found support this morning after retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.5% in September, defying forecasts for a 0.2% decline and following a 0.6% gain in August. The surprise uptick lifted sentiment around the Pound, with attention now turning to the upcoming UK manufacturing and services PMI releases later today.Key Movers
The Euro continues to trade within a narrow range this week, holding steady between 1.158 and 1.162 against the US Dollar and 0.867 and 0.871 against the Pound. The currency remains largely reactive to broader market movements rather than setting its own direction, as traders await today’s Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI data for fresh insight into the region’s economic momentum.Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains firm, though further upside appears limited against the Pound as the UK’s gradual disinflation reduces the risk of stagflation. Investors are now focused on the upcoming US inflation data for September, scheduled for release today at 13:30 (UK time). However, with the government shutdown still ongoing, there’s uncertainty over whether the data will be delayed - leaving markets to take their cues from developments around the US–China trade talks and the shutdown’s progress instead.
Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.33 - 1.338 ▲
- GBP/EUR: 1.145 - 1.152 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 2.045 - 2.06 ▲
- EUR/USD: 1.158 - 1.164 ▼