Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar is steady this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6577 at time of writing. The Australian dollar remains steady following the release of mixed economic data from Australia and China’s NBS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Thursday. However, hawkish expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy outlook continued to support the Aussie dollar and limit the downside of the AUD/USD pair. In September, seasonally adjusted Australian Retail Sales rose by 0.1% month-over-month, falling short of the expected 0.3% and significantly down from the 0.7% growth seen in the previous month. On a quarterly basis, Retail Sales increased by 0.5% in Q3, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in the prior quarter. Earlier this week Australia's annual inflation rate fell to 2.8 per cent, down from 3.8 per cent mid-year, slightly lower than expectations. It's the lowest annual inflation rate in three and a half years. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), prices rose by 0.2 per cent in the September quarter, compared to the 1 per cent rise in the three months through June. Looking ahead today we will see the release of the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI), which is another leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers charge more for goods and services, the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.
Key Movers
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds from the day’s low of 103.80 and turns flat, at the time of writing. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a five-month low last week and consumer spending increased more than expected in September, showcasing the economy's strength heading into the final stretch of 2024 and just days before next Tuesday's presidential election. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended Oct. 26, the lowest level since May, the Labor Department said. The third straight weekly decline likely reflected the fading distortions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which boosted claims in early October and kept them elevated through the middle of the month. The report also highlighted a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.2%, while the four-week moving average retreated to 236.50K, marking a decrease of 2.250k from the prior week’s revised average. The US PCE Price Index rose moderately by 2.1% YoY in September, lower than the previous 2.2%, but below the consensus of 2.2%. Core PCE, more relevant for the Fed, remained steady at 2.7%, against market expectations of a decline to 2.6%.
Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6500 - 0.6700 ▲
- AUD/EUR: 0.5950 - 0.6150 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 1.9500 - 1.9700 ▼
- AUD/NZD: 1.0900 - 1.1100 ▼
- AUD/CAD: 0.9050 - 0.9250 ▲