Home Daily Commentaries Aussie dollar trades above 67 US cents

Aussie dollar trades above 67 US cents

Thursday 22 December, 2022

Daily Currency Update

The Australian dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback. AUD/USD pair extended its rally on Wednesday testing the 67 US cent mark. A recovery in the global risk sentiment as depicted by the upbeat tone around the equity markets is seen as a key factor lending some support to the perceived riskier Aussie. That said, the emergence of some US dollar buying keeps a lid on any meaningful upside for the AUD/USD pair and warrants some caution for bullish traders. AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6709 at time of writing. On the data front yesterday the monthly level of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity was 97.64 in November, down from a revised 97.77 in October. The six-month annualised growth rate of the Leading Index fell further in November and is weak. Consequently the Leading Index suggests that the Australian economy will grow at a below-trend pace in the next 3 to 9 months. The growth rate of the Leading Index continues to hold in negative territory. November is the fourth consecutive month that the growth rate has been negative. That first negative signal in August was consistent with a below trend growth pace in late 2022 and well into 2023. The persistence of these negative prints confirms the sustained below trend outlook for the Australian economy in 2023. Looking ahead today and there are no scheduled releases.  On Friday the Australia Treasury Department will release the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook which compares the government's fiscal performance to the strategy outlined in the prior Annual Budget.

Key Movers

In the United States overnight The S&P 500 rose 1.4 per cent as of 12.58pm New York time. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.5 per cent. The MSCI World index rose 0.2 per cent. The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.68 per cent. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.6 per cent to US$78.19 a barrel. Gold futures were little changed. On the data front Existing Home Sales in the US declined by 7.7% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported on Wednesday. This reading came in much worse than the market expectation for a no-change. "The median existing-home sales price rose to $370,700, an increase of 3.5% from one year ago," the NAR further noted in its publication. Consumer sentiment in the US continued to improve in the US with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rising to 108.3 from 101.4 in November. This reading came in better than Reuters' estimate of 101.0. Finally, the one-year consumer inflation rate expectations dropped to 6.7% from 7.1%.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6600 - 0.6800 ▲
  • AUD/EUR: 0.6200 - 0.6400 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.7900 - 1.8100 ▼
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0550 - 1.0750 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.9000 - 0.9200 ▲