Home Daily Commentaries Canadian dollar makes gains on equity and oil rebound

Canadian dollar makes gains on equity and oil rebound

Daily Currency Update

The Canadian dollar is starting the day up as oil is up with the WTI benchmark coming back over the $80 a barrel level and futures markets are pointing towards a positive open for the North American session.  The CAD had a bad start to the week, losing close to 2% against the USD.  Positive data in European trading though has led to a rebound in more risk positive assets.  With no Canadian data on the docket today, the CAD will trade along with reactions to the weekly oil inventories from Cushing OK, and the lunchtime address from Fed Chair Powell.

Key Movers

The USD has lost ground in overnight markets, losing ground against all the other major currencies.  This is ahead of comments today from Fed chair Jerome Powell on what the Fed’s outlook is on inflation and rates moving into 2023.  Should Powell continue the hawkish tone of other Fed board member though, the focus will squarely be on tomorrow’s PCE inflation data to drive market expectations for US interest rates. Today’s data prints saw the US economy experiencing more growth in Q3 than expected, with the GDP print showing 2.9% growth, compared to the consensus 2.7%.

The euro saw gains in the overnights as inflation in the trading zone fell to 10% for October, down from the previous 10.6%. This is the first drop in inflation since July 2021. In Asian Markets, Chinese PMI data missed expectation coming in at 46.7, below the forecasted 48.0. This shows waning confidence from Chinese manufacturers as that deal with continued government restrictions around Covid19.  The Australian dollar followed the Chinese data downward at first but rebounded to where it started the session on improved equities markets and commodity pricing.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/CAD: 1.40 - 1.4125 ▲
  • GBP/CAD: 1.6205 - 1.6362 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.9069 - 0.9125 ▲
  • USD/CAD: 1.3504 - 1.3643 ▼