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Down, Down; the AUD is Down

Friday 2 September, 2022

Daily Currency Update

The Australian Dollar tumbled below 0.68 US cents through trade on Thursday amid elevated risk aversion and stronger than anticipated US macroeconomic data. Having tracked toward 0.68 through the domestic session the AUD seemed to have found support bouncing back toward 0.6840 leading into the daily close, before the news the Chinese city of Chengdu, a manufacturing hub, would be thrust into lockdown amid a new Covid outbreak flattened investors demand for risk. Having tracked back toward 0.68 the AUD then broke support following stronger than expected US manufacturing data. The ISM manufacturing index showed stability through July, moving against market expectations for a significant contraction. US jobless claims fell, underpinning the tight labour market while 2nd tier employment data showed added signs of positivity. The robust macro print fueled a surge in US rates and drove the US dollar index to fresh 18-year highs. The AUD plunged to intraday lows at 0.6770 before finding support. Our attentions turn now to US non-farm payroll data. We expect another robust month of jobs growth and stability across the unemployment rate, underpinning expectations for a 75-basis point hike later this month. A strong read will heap more pressure on the embattled AUD and could prompt a move toward and below the mid July low and 0.6730.

Key Movers

Price action abound through trade on Thursday as the US dollar surged higher on the heels of a stronger than anticipated data set and broader risk off shift. A robust ISM manufacturing print coupled with a downturn in US jobless claims fueled expectations for a 75-point Fed rate hike later this month. Markets are now pricing a 75% probability the FOMC will raise rates by 75 points in a bid to control near term inflation pressures. The stronger data drove US rates higher, lifting 10-year yields to 3.25%, a staggering 13 points up on yesterday. The backdrop of stronger rates saw the US dollar index mark new 18-year highs as the dollar forced the Euro back below parity and powered above 140 against the Yen its highest level in almost 25 years). In other news the PBOC set the Yuan fix at a stronger than anticipated level for a fifth consecutive day as policymakers attempt to slow the pace of CNY depreciation, while showing signs of stability in the Asian session the yuan continued its bearish trajectory overnight as the USD extended above 6.90 and appears set on a breaking the all-important 7.0 handle. The US dollar upturn added new pain to the GBP, prompting a break below 1.16, marking new lows at 1.15. Our attentions turn now to US non-farm payroll data where we anticipate another strong month of labour market growth. A read in line with expectations will all but guarantee a 75-point hike later this month and could see the dollar stretch its legs leading into the weekly close.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6730 - 0.6930 ▼
  • AUD/EUR: 0.6750 - 0.6880 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.6880 - 1.7120 ▼
  • AUD/NZD: 1.1120 - 1.1220 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8880 - 0.9020 ▼