Home Daily Commentaries UK inflation likely to keep BoE on hold in 2019

UK inflation likely to keep BoE on hold in 2019

Daily Currency Update

GBP - British PoundUK inflation came in slightly below consensus in March, keeping headline CPI below target for the third month running. Posting 1.9% against a forecast of 2% the number just missed the BOE’s target of 2% and therefore leaves a cloud over any chance of the central bank increasing interest rates for the foreseeable. With Easter recess in full swing Brexit chatter takes a back seat but fundamentals are still being scrutinised with Brexit to blame. This was evidenced through the release of London House prices posting a drop of 3.8% year on year, the steepest drop since 2009. However, Sterling moves were muted and trade ranges were thin. Today could see some fresh bids for a Pound rally as we have the release of Retail sales at 9.30am.

Key Movers

For the Euro, we had it confirmed officially that Germany has cut its 2019 growth forecast from 1% to 0.5%. Elsewhere, all the European CPI’s were in line with forecast so the Euro moves were fairly muted. This morning though we do have some price action, the Euro starts the day on the back foot following the German PMI release. Coming in below forecast it highlights further contraction (fourth month in a row), and places further pressure on the single currency.The Aussie moved higher against Sterling overnight after a jobs report showed more jobs were added than expected. Its been a strong week for the AUD following the improved Chines data we had earlier in the week and looks to be heading into Easter with the crown for the best performing currency. USD/CAD traded sideways for most of Wednesday even with a packed fundamental calendar. Canadian CPI remained pegged at 0.7% in March, matching the forecast. Today will be busy on both sides of the border. Canada releases retail sales reports and ADP nonfarm payrolls. In the U.S., in addition to retail sales, we’ll get a look at the Philly Fed manufacturing index and unemployment claims.

Expected Ranges

  • GBP/USD: 1.2950 - 1.3080 ▼
  • GBP/EUR: 1.1520 - 1.1610 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.8110 - 1.8290 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 1.9310 - 1.9460 ▲
  • GBP/CAD: 1.7320 - 1.7480 ▼