Aussie dollar rises as strong job data boosts confidence
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Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar (AUD) climbed higher on Thursday, with the AUD/USD pair reaching near 0.6580 during the European trading session, its strongest level in almost two weeks. The move reflects growing confidence in Australia’s economic outlook, supported by surprisingly strong employment data for October. Earlier in the day, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that employers added 42,200 new jobs last month, more than double the market forecast of 20,000 and well above September’s modest gain of 12,800. At the same time, the unemployment rate eased slightly to 4.3%, improving on expectations of 4.4% and the previous reading of 4.5%. This upbeat report suggests that Australia’s labour market remains resilient, even as global economic uncertainty continues to weigh on investor sentiment. Strong hiring and steady employment figures often signal robust domestic demand, which tends to support the local currency. For the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the latest data could complicate its policy outlook. A stronger jobs market reduces the urgency for further interest rate cuts, as continued wage and employment growth can help sustain inflation near the central bank’s target. So far this year, the RBA has trimmed its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 75 basis points, bringing it down to 3.6% in an effort to support economic growth. Market participants are now reassessing how much further the RBA might go. With job creation outpacing expectations, traders are increasingly doubtful that additional rate cuts are on the near-term horizon. Instead, attention may shift toward signs of whether the labour strength can be maintained into the holiday season and early 2026. The combination of strong domestic data and a softer U.S. dollar has given the Aussie a welcome lift. Broader market sentiment has also improved, with investors showing renewed appetite for risk-sensitive assets, like the Australian dollar. If labour market momentum continues, the AUD/USD pair could find further support in the weeks ahead. For now, the Aussie is enjoying a moment of optimism, backed by a resilient workforce and renewed faith in Australia’s economic stability.Key Movers
The pound sterling (GBP) advanced on Thursday, supported by broad U.S. dollar (USD) weakness, as Washington’s government reopening lifted investor sentiment and set the stage for a busy week of economic data ahead. The GBP/USD pair climbed to a two-week high of 1.3197, up 0.46% on the day. The dollar’s decline follows the U.S. government’s partial reopening, which will allow key economic releases to resume after several weeks of delay. Market participants are now looking ahead to a string of upcoming reports, including the September Non-farm Payrolls data, expected next week. According to Fox Business correspondent Edward Lawrence, sources suggest that the delayed jobs report could be published soon, offering the Federal Reserve (Fed) and traders fresh insight into the state of the U.S. labor market. For now, however, U.S. economic data remains limited, leaving the dollar under pressure. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major peers, fell to around 99.30, its lowest level in nearly two weeks. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing a 67% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% in December. If confirmed, this would mark the third consecutive rate cut by the U.S. central bank this year. Across the Atlantic, however, the U.K. faces its own economic challenges. The latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data showed that Britain’s economy contracted 0.1% month-on-month in September, missing forecasts for flat growth. On a yearly basis, GDP grew 1.3%, slightly below the 1.4% pace seen in August. The weaker figures reinforced expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could move toward a rate cut at its next meeting. Market pricing now suggests an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction in the BoE’s Bank Rate, with traders also anticipating further easing of up to 50 basis points in 2026. However, investors remain cautious ahead of the Autumn Budget due on November 26, which may influence fiscal and monetary policy outlooks. For now, the pound is enjoying some breathing room thanks to a softer dollar, though its longer-term trajectory will depend on whether the U.K.’s slowing growth forces the BoE’s hand sooner rather than later.Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6600 ▲
- AUD/EUR: 0.5500 - 0.5700 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 2.0100 - 2.0300 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.1450 - 1.1650 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.9050 - 0.9250 ▼