Home Daily Commentaries AUD holds onto gains as US labour gains loom large

AUD holds onto gains as US labour gains loom large

Daily Currency Update

The Australian dollar held onto Wednesday’s break above US$0.67 through trade on Thursday amid a risk on mood and further broad-based USD downside. Fading concerns surrounding the rise of the far-right French political party the National Rally helped bolster risk demand through the overnight session, fueling euro gains and USD losses. With the USD on the back foot, improved risk sentiment helped prop up commodity-led currencies. The AUD continued to outperform touching session highs at US$0.6731 and closing only marginally south of that handle to mark its highest daily close since January 2nd. The question now is, can the AUD sustain this rally? Our focus turns to US non-farm payroll numbers this evening. The consensus is that payroll activity will slow after the robust May print, while the unemployment rate should continue to seek higher and average hourly earnings will be critical in influencing inflation expectations. AUD upside could be quickly reversed if payroll gains outpace expectations. At the same time, a softer print could be the catalyst needed to consolidate the week's upside extension and lead the AUD into a new higher range.

Key Movers

Despite US markets closing in observance of Independence Day celebrations, there has been steady price action through the last 24 hours with the USD extending Wednesday’s sell-off amid improved risk sentiment. The euro pushed above US$1.08 following polling that indicates Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party is highly unlikely to win an absolute majority dampening fears of fiscal recklessness. Having touched intraday highs at US$1.0814, the euro held near that level through the daily close. With the USD on the back foot, the Japanese yen even managed to seek out small gains and is the 2nd strongest major through the last 24 hours, up more than three-tenths of a percent. In the UK Exit Polls suggest a labour landslide adding some upside to the GBP, but until results are confirmed and official polling filters in GBP are likely to track sideways. Outside the UK election result our focus turns to US non-farm payrolls. With the USD giving up ground this week a softer print could see markets consolidate and extend losses while an upside surprise gives license to investors to retrace the move and prop up the USD into the weekly close.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6600 - 0.6780 ▲
  • AUD/EUR: 0.6150 - 0.6250 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.8800 - 1.9100 ▼
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0920 - 1.1020 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.9100 - 0.9200 ▲

Written by

Matt Richardson


As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.