Home Daily Commentaries The Greenback weakens despite an expected dovish position from the ECB

The Greenback weakens despite an expected dovish position from the ECB

Thursday 25 July, 2019

Daily Currency Update

USD - United States DollarThe U.S. dollar index is falling 0.13 percent due to the ECB announcement - more on this below. Locally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin spoke on CNBC, stating that he does not advocate a weak dollar policy in the near-term. Over the long run, he said he believes in a strong dollar, which signifies a strong U.S. economy and a strong stock market. On a different note, according to Bloomberg, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has shown admiration for Greenspan and getting his stamp of approval likely means a rate cut for July is a lock. Powell may also feel encouraged to adopt an even more dovish stance, consenting to the market's expectation of 75 basis points of cuts within the next year.On the release side, according to Market Watch, orders for long-lasting manufactured goods such as autos and computers rose in June for the first time in three months, but business spending and investment is still much weaker than a year ago as companies try to navigate a more unsettled global economy.

Key Movers

While the ECB and Mario Draghi didn't change interest rates or the asset purchase program, their initial statement suggested a potential rate cut in the pipeline and they are getting ready for more QE and deposit-rate tiering. The economic outlook in Europe is not getting better, and the ECB doesn't like what it sees when it comes to inflation. While one might argue that these circumstances could call for a policy easing today, the ECB gave the most reliable possible hint that a package of measures is coming down the pipe in September, including a rate cut with mitigating tiering measures and a renewal of the QE program. As a result, the EUR/USD pair has been trading close to its lows from the year; however, it has bounced strongly this morning, and the pair is trading at 1.1167, which is 0.25 percent higher at the time of this writing. The reason for this is likely because the Fed is making its announcement next week, which might have a very easy policy. While the ECB and Fed announcements this year have generally tended to be dovish, they have marked the bottom and top of the EUR/USD pair's trading range.In Australia, Lowe said "It remains to be seen if future growth in demand will be sufficient to put pressure on the economy's supply capacity and lift inflation in a reasonable time frame. It is certainly possible that this is the outcome. But if demand growth is not sufficient, the Board is prepared to provide additional support by easing monetary policy further. However, as I have discussed on other occasions, other arms of public policy could also play a role in this scenario." The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.6955, representing a 0.32 percent fall, and the most important crosses with the Aussie dollar are trading weaker today as well. For instance, the EUR/AUD pair is rising 0.72 percent at the time of this writing.

Expected Ranges

  • USD/CAD: 1.3098 - 1.3144 ▼
  • EUR/USD: 1.1111 - 1.1200 ▲
  • GBP/USD: 1.2458 - 1.2505 ▲
  • AUD/USD: 0.6949 - 0.6975 ▼
  • NZD/USD: 0.6671 - 0.6713 ▼