Five days have passed since the elections in Catalonia and it is still not clear who will form a regional coalition there, let alone what relations will be with the rest of the country. Although Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy's conservative Popular Party (PP) had a disastrous election, winning just three of the 135 seats, he will for the moment keep control of the region, because he imposed direct rule in October, invoking Article 155 of the constitution. That extraordinary measure was a first in post-Franco Spain and though it was said to be “temporary”, no end date has yet been announced for the current situation.
The European Union has treated the matter as an internal affair for Spain to resolve and is highly unlikely to change its stance. Meantime, the Catalan economy has suffered. Thousands of businesses, including major banks and energy firms, have moved their headquarters out of the region and, as it accounts for around 19% of Spanish GDP, the economic uncertainty is weighing down on activity. The OECD, for example, now forecasts GDP growth of just 2.3% in 2018 after 3.0% in 2017.
The ECB publishes its monthly Economic Bulletin on Thursday and it will be interesting to see how much weight, if any, it places on developments in Spain. The country accounts for only 11% of Eurozone GDP and is the fourth largest country after Germany, France and Italy.
For today, the EUR has slipped around a quarter of a cent from its overnight highs and opens in North America this morning at USD 1.1855 and CAD 1.5075.