Home Daily Commentaries US Dollar starts the week up as oil and equities stumble

US Dollar starts the week up as oil and equities stumble

Daily Currency Update

The USD Index (DXY) is starting the week up slightly as Oil and equities enter the trading week down.  The price of West Texas (WTI) oil had fallen from last week’s $90 high to just over $86 a barrel.  The futures for all major US indices are down in early trading as well.  There are 3 things in the next 7 days that could have a major impact on the markets leading to the end of the year.  Wednesday’s FOMC Rate announcement, Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll, and next Tuesday’s mid-term elections all have the potential to have a significant impacts on the markets.

Key Movers

Eurozone inflation continued to jump in October with the headline inflation rate coming in at 107% vs 10.2%.  Core inflation was up 5%, vs an expectation of 5% against an expected 4.9%.  This has investors shifting expectations of the next ECB rate hike moving from 50 points to 75.

AUD is weaker this morning when valued against the US dollar. Last week, the Australian dollar was boosted based on a weaker US dollar and a stronger-than-expected local CPI reading. On the data front, today we will see the release of monthly retail sales figures, which is the earliest look at vital consumer spending data and the primary gauge of consumer spending which accounts for most of the overall economic activity. On Tuesday, all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate announcement, which is expected to lift the official cash rate by another 0.25% from 2.60% to 2.85%.

The JPY is up this morning in the face of negative economic data released overnight.  Industrial production came in down -1.6% last month against a consensus -0.8%.

The CAD is starting the week following downward trends in oil and stocks.  The Canadian dollar has lost ground from Friday’s highs with both drivers showing loses.  The Canadian dollar will be at risk to the major US announcements this week with the FOMC Rate Announcement (Wednesday) and jobs data in both Canada and the US coming out Friday.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/USD: 0.9903 - 0.9964 ▼
  • GBP/USD: 1.1495 - 1.1607 ▼
  • AUD/USD: 0.6379 - 0.6427 ▼
  • USD/CAD: 1.3604 - 1.3682 ▲