OFX Daily & Weekly Market News Feed https://www.ofx.com/en-au/ OFX Daily & Weekly Market News Feed en-AU Copyright © 2024 www.ofx.com https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/19/aud-tracks-sideways-ahead-of-key-rba-and-bank-of-japan-policy-updates/AUD tracks sideways ahead of key RBA and Bank of Japan policy updates <h3>AUD - Australian dollar</h3> <p>It was a relatively subdued start to the week with the AUD maintaining a narrow range as investors patiently await a slew of key central bank policy updates. With little data of note on the docket, yield rates and currencies were little moved as expectations for Fed and RBA policy were largely unchanged leading into this week’s meetings. The AUD bounced between US$0.6550 and US$0.6575.<br /> <br /> We expect the RBA will hold rates and while there is no new forecast issued the following press conference will prove key to shaping near-term expectations. There are growing calls for the RBA to cut rates as early as August, yet with little new evidence emerging since the February outlook, we expect policymakers will push the same message and hang on to a tightening bias for now. A shift in guidance could hurt the AUD and prompt a drive below supports at US$0.65.</p> <h3>Key Movers</h3> <p>There was little movement among majors through trade on Monday with the USD DXY index edging marginally higher, up 0.1%, as investors prepare for key central bank policy updates. Ahead of the FOMC policy meeting, there are 15-basis points of cuts priced in for June and just over 70 points priced for the year's end.<br /> <br /> Market pricing has now fallen below the Fed’s December dot plot following a string of hotter-than-expected inflation markers. Investors will be keenly attuned to any commentary that suggests a policy change is nigh.<br /> <br /> Ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting today, reports emerged that the BoJ is poised to end its yield curve controls and call an end to negative interest rates. Such a move has been much anticipated and pricing has firmed in recent weeks, so it will be interesting to see the scale and scope of the market reaction should the BoJ follow through.<br /> <br /> The yen was flat against the USD on Monday bouncing between 148.9 and 149.3, while the GBP was little changed and the euro gave up 0.2% trading down to 1.0870. Attentions are squarely affixed on the RBA and Bank of Japan for direction ahead of the FOMC meeting later in the week.</p> <h3>Expected Ranges</h3><strong>AUD/USD:</strong> 0.6500 - 0.6600 ▼<br><br><strong>AUD/EUR:</strong> 0.6580 - 0.6700 ▲<br><br><strong>GBP/AUD:</strong> 1.9300 - 1.9500 ▼<br><br><strong>AUD/NZD:</strong> 1.0680 - 1.0820 ▲<br><br><strong>AUD/CAD:</strong> 0.8820 - 0.8930 ▼<br><br>Tue, 19 Mar 24 00:00:00 +0000https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/19/aud-tracks-sideways-ahead-of-key-rba-and-bank-of-japan-policy-updates/https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/18/aussie-dollar-falls-below-us0-66/Aussie dollar falls below US$0.66 <h3>AUD - Australian dollar</h3> <p>The Australian dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6548 at the time of writing. The Aussie dollar is trading lower on Friday, extending Thursday’s sell-off into the weekend. The AUD/USD pair is feeling pressure from negative Chinese housing and lending data which indicates the property sector of the world’s second largest economy is still in the eye of the storm. China’s struggling real estate developers won’t be getting a major bailout, Chinese authorities have indicated, warning that those who “harm the interests of the masses” will be punished. Authorities have since announced measures to provide some developers with financing. But the national stance on reducing the role of real estate in the economy hasn’t changed. Real estate was once about 25% of China’s GDP when including related sectors such as construction. UBS analysts estimated late last year that property now accounts for about 22% of the economy. The Chinese House Price Index showed a decline in house prices of minus 1.4% in February from minus 0.7% in the previous month of January, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, released early Friday. This continues the down trend in Chinese house prices since 2019.<br /> Looking ahead this week all eyes will be on Tuesday's Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate announcement. The market is expecting the RBA to leave rates on hold for another month at 4.35% where it has been for five months. It will spare millions of home owners a further mortgage bill squeeze amid near-record levels of mortgage stress risk and increasing rates of overdue repayments in recent months. Economists say interest rates are unlikely to increase further, with the next move set to be down, potentially later this year or at some stage in 2025, as inflation continues to ease. On Thursday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the unemployment figures for the month which is predicted to see the jobless rate decrease from 4.1% to 4%.</p> <h3>Key Movers</h3> <p>Last week the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to moderate job growth despite slowing economic activity. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 346,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were revised to show 3,000 more applications received than previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had expected first-time applications to fall to 345,000 last week. Although claims have been volatile in recent weeks, there is little in the numbers to suggest a shift in the moderate pace of job gains, even as the broader economy is struggling under the weight of higher taxes and deep government spending cuts.<br /> The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is down around half a percent as markets round the corner into the Friday closing bell with US equities broadly lower on the day. An extended pullback in the tech and telecoms sectors are dragging down the averages. From the technical point of view, Dow Jones is moving towards the nearest support at 38,500 – 38,550. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at 38,100 – 38,150. The SP500 is losing ground as traders react to the economic reports. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index declined from -2.4 in February to -20.9 in March, compared to analyst consensus of -7. Industrial Production increased by 0.1% in February. The final reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report indicated that Consumer Sentiment pulled back from 76.9 in February to 76.5 in March. Treasury yields continued to move higher as bond traders focused on the recent CPI and PPI reports, which showed that inflation was not under control.</p> <h3>Expected Ranges</h3><strong>AUD/USD:</strong> 0.6450 - 0.6650 ▼<br><br><strong>AUD/EUR:</strong> 0.5900 - 0.6100 ▼<br><br><strong>GBP/AUD:</strong> 1.9250 - 1.9450 ▲<br><br><strong>AUD/NZD:</strong> 1.0650 - 1.0850 ▲<br><br><strong>AUD/CAD:</strong> 0.8750 - 0.8950 ▼<br><br>Mon, 18 Mar 24 00:00:00 +0000https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/18/aussie-dollar-falls-below-us0-66/https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/15/aud-gives-up-us0-66-amid-higher-us-rates-and-mixed-data/AUD gives up US$0.66 amid higher US rates and mixed data <h3>AUD - Australian dollar</h3> <p>The Australian dollar retreated through trade on Thursday sliding back below US$0.66 amid hotter-than-expected US inflation indicators and robust labour data. US data was mixed with US PPI demand for February printing well above median estimates as higher food and energy prices continue to drive elevated input costs, lifting expectations for another hot PCE deflator print. Inflation pressures continue to linger yet consumer sentiment and spending is beginning to falter. Retail sales rose just 0.6% in February while January data was revised down as consumers began to feel the pinch of a higher cost of living. While signs the US is headed for a period of stagflation intensify market focus continues to be drawn to inflation metrics and the timing and trajectory of US rate cuts. This latest print all but extinguishes any hope of a May rate adjustments and lowers the expectations for rate cuts into year need. Markets are now pricing just 76 basis points of cuts into year-end, down from 95 basis points at the end of last week. With US yields edging upward and the USD pushing higher the AUD marked intraday lows at US$0.6572.<br /> Our attention now turns to the US data again for direction into the weekend with manufacturing, industrial production, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations all helping shape a clearer picture of US economic performance.</p> <h3>Key Movers</h3> <p>The USD outperformed through Thursday, propped up by higher US rates and emerging stagflation indicators. Mixed US data set investors to adjust fed rate expectations, all but eliminating the chance of a May rate hike and forcing a correction in the expected trajectory and scale of cuts through year-end. The pound slipped below US$1.2750 while the euro gave up US$1.09. The yen however showed surprising resilience and is the least affected major as speculation the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise rates next week continues to grow. Japanese news agency Jiji reported the BOJ would end its negative rate policy at its March meeting if wage growth was strong. With union negotiations reporting increases in wages to the tune of 5% a review of annual wage deals could prove a catalyst for change and force BOJ officials to act. The USD slipped below ¥147.50 before clawing back above ¥148 leading into this morning's open.</p> <h3>Expected Ranges</h3><strong>AUD/USD:</strong> 0.6500 - 0.6630 ▼<br><br><strong>AUD/EUR:</strong> 0.6000 - 0.6100 ▼<br><br><strong>GBP/AUD:</strong> 1.9300 - 1.9500 ▲<br><br><strong>AUD/NZD:</strong> 1.0700 - 1.0800 ▼<br><br><strong>AUD/CAD:</strong> 0.8880 - 0.8950 ▼<br><br>Fri, 15 Mar 24 00:00:00 +0000https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/15/aud-gives-up-us0-66-amid-higher-us-rates-and-mixed-data/https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/14/aud-steady-despite-rise-in-us-yields-and-falling-iron-ore-prices/AUD steady despite rise in US yields and falling iron ore prices <h3>AUD - Australian dollar</h3> <p>The Australian dollar tracked within a narrow range through Wednesday, bouncing between US$0.66 and US$0.6630. It was a relatively quiet day across financial markets with currency moves well contained and equities largely subdued as investors await the next catalyst that could trigger a shift in direction. Despite an uptick in US treasury yields and a further decline in Iron ore prices, the AUD held onto gains above US$0.66. Iron ore prices tumbled a further 2.6% amid rising concern surrounding Chinese demand. With very little ramp up in construction activity since the Lunar New Year, prices could well fall further and the fickle relationship between iron ore prices and AUD value may become to hard to ignore. Offsetting declines in Iron ore was a rise in copper prices. Copper outperformed other commodities jumping 3% amid a decline in supply as Chinese smelters dial back production.<br /> <br /> Our attentions now turn to a busy US docket with PPI and retails sales data headlining.</p> <h3>Key Movers</h3> <p>Price action across currency markets was largely subdued through Wednesday with Norwegian Kroner leading gains among major currencies amid an uptick in Oil prices following a Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian Oil refineries. The US DXY index edged lower on the day while the GBO And Euro offered little to excite investors. Reports that the Bank of Japan may tweak its policy framework at next weeks policy meeting, dominated investors attentions. Confirmation a string of Japanese unions had secured a 5.3% uptick in average wages removed fears a tighter financial conditions will further suppress activity, bolstering calls for policy makers to begin the process of exiting negative interest rates and yield curve controls. The USD edged lower, unable to hold onto gains above 148.<br /> <br /> Our attentions turn now to US PPI and retails sales data ahead of manufacturing and consumer sentiment numbers Friday.</p> <h3>Expected Ranges</h3><strong>AUD/USD:</strong> 0.6500 - 0.6700 ▲<br><br><strong>AUD/EUR:</strong> 0.6000 - 0.6100 ▲<br><br><strong>GBP/AUD:</strong> 1.9250 - 1.9450 ▼<br><br><strong>AUD/NZD:</strong> 1.0700 - 1.0800 ▲<br><br><strong>AUD/CAD:</strong> 0.8880 - 0.8980 ▲<br><br>Thu, 14 Mar 24 00:00:00 +0000https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/14/aud-steady-despite-rise-in-us-yields-and-falling-iron-ore-prices/https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/13/aud-holds-up-in-face-of-hotter-us-inflation-print/AUD holds up in face of hotter US inflation print <h3>AUD - Australian dollar</h3> <p>The Australian dollar closed the day lower but performed admirably in the face of a hotter-than-expected US inflation update. US CPI data was stronger than anticipated in February, driving US yields and the US dollar higher, while equities and risk assets retreated.<br /> <br /> Markets were hoping to see a correction in the January numbers and the stickier-than-expected read is less than preferable for policymakers leading into key PCE and PPI data. The AUD pitched toward intraday lows at US$0.6584 following the print, but found support and clawed back above US$0.66, leading into this morning’s open.<br /> <br /> Investors were seemingly braced for worse and while headline inflation edged upward, closer analysis showed core inflation continues to track lower.<br /> <br /> With little of note on today’s domestic ticket, our attention turns to UK GDP data and ECB commentary ahead of more key US data on Thursday and the RBA policy update next Tuesday.</p> <h3>Key Movers</h3> <p>The US dollar outperformed through trade on Tuesday, buoyed by a hotter-than-anticipated February CPI print. US yields rallied and the dollar edged higher after headline CPI wrote in above estimates, forcing markets to pare bets for a June rate cut.<br /> <br /> Markets are now pricing just a 20-basis point cut in June, down from 22, while cuts into the end of the year have been amended down from 91 to 85-basis points. While only a small correction, it speaks to the narrative of uncertainty surrounding the timing and trajectory of US rate adjustments and offers the dollar a floor through the near term.<br /> <br /> With the DXY index higher, the euro tracked sideways recouping losses incurred following the CPI print. Having slipped below 2.28, the GBP failed to regain the handle and trades just below 1.2790. The yen was the day's notable underperformer giving up half a per cent following comments from Bank of Japan governor Ueda.<br /> <br /> With markets focused on the timing of policy adjustment Ueda said “Although there is weakness in household spending data my view is that the gradual recovery continues.” Markets saw this as cautious and pared bets for any near-term policy change.</p> <h3>Expected Ranges</h3><strong>AUD/USD:</strong> 0.6500 - 0.6700 ▼<br><br><strong>AUD/EUR:</strong> 0.6000 - 0.6100 ▼<br><br><strong>GBP/AUD:</strong> 1.9200 - 1.9400 ▼<br><br><strong>AUD/NZD:</strong> 1.0700 - 1.0800 ▲<br><br><strong>AUD/CAD:</strong> 0.8880 - 0.8980 ▲<br><br>Wed, 13 Mar 24 00:00:00 +0000https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/daily-and-weekly-market-news/2024/03/13/aud-holds-up-in-face-of-hotter-us-inflation-print/