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Weaker U.S business spending dampens rate hike expectations

Friday 27th May 2016

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar recouped Wednesday’s losses rallying back through 0.72 U.S cents during trade on Thursday. Despite weaker than anticipated private capital expenditure throughout the first quarter the AUD bounced off supports, buoyed by a rebound in oil, to touch intraday highs at 0.7244. Softer than anticipated U.S macroeconomic data and profit taking dampened analyst hopes of a June rate increase as investors adjusted expectations surrounding the path of Fed interest rates. Fed Funds Futures indicated those anticipating a June/July lift off slipped to just 26% down from 34% on Tuesday. With little of note on the domestic docket today attentions turn to preliminary U.S first quarter GDP numbers and Fed Chair Janet Yellen for direction into the close and weekend.     


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Today's expected range

0.7150 - 0.7330
0.6710 - 0.6810
2.0100 - 2.0500

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Last Week Market Recap

Monday 23rd May 2016
Fell for its fourth consecutive week last week as the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes cited a weakened inflation outlook for its surprise cut to the Cash Rate earlier this month, while both countries reported mixed economic data. The week began with the rate making its weekly high of 0.7834 on Monday after a lower than expected U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index number. The pair then declined on Tuesday after the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, “On balance, members were persuaded that prospects for sustainable growth in the economy, with inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting”. On Wednesday, the rate extended its losses, falling sharply after the FOMC released mildly hawkish Meeting Minutes. The pair continued its slide on Thursday after Australian Employment Change declined to 10.8K versus 12.1K expected, while the Australian Unemployment Rate held steady at 5.7%. The pair then made its weekly low of 0.7175 on Friday before recovering somewhat on position squaring. AUD/USD closed at 0.7221, with a weekly decline of -0.6 %.   

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