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Risk off trade hampers AUD rebound

Tuesday 9th February 2016
After last week’s volatility the Australian dollar suffered a topsy turvy start to what promised to be a quieter week ahead. The Aussie bounced about a near one cent range as markets adjusted positions following Friday’s correction and risk appetite trends. Edging upward in early trade the AUD touched session highs at 0.7128 before tumbling oil prices and risk off trade took hold forcing the currency back through 0.71 to touch intraday lows at 0.7049. With Chinese New Year Celebrations limiting liquidity and little fundamental data on hand to govern direction the Australian dollar looks to sentiment and commodity prices for bearing through Tuesday. Attentions then turn to Fed Chair Janet Yellen as she testifies on Monetary Policy platforms to Congress. A hawkish Yellen could spell a recovery for the Greenback as market interest rate expectations wane.

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Today's expected range

AUD / USD
0.6980 - 0.7130
NZD / USD
0.6550 - 0.6680
GBP / AUD
2.0250 - 2.0550

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Last Week Market Recap

Monday 1st February 2015

Extended its previous week’s gains last week as Australia reported better than expected economic numbers while the FOMC released a somewhat dovish statement. The week began with the pair declining on Monday after Australian NAB Business Confidence printed at 3 compared to a previous reading of 5. The rate then gained ground on Tuesday after making its weekly low of 0.6917 despite a better than expected U.S. consumer confidence number. The pair continued higher on Wednesday as the FOMC left rates unchanged and after Australian Trimmed Mean CPI increased +0.6% q/q versus +0.5% expected, while CPI increased +0.4%, in line with expectations. Thursday saw the rate extend its rally after Australian Import Prices declined -0.3% q/q compared to an expected decline of -0.8%, while the United States reported lower than expected U.S. Durable Goods Orders data. The pair then made its weekly high of 0.7140 on Friday before consolidating after Australian PPI increased +0.3% q/q versus +0.6% expected. AUD/USD closed at 0.7082, with an overall gain of +1.1% from its previous weekly close.

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