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US economy stalls as BOJ holds fire

Friday 29th April 2016 
Doing well to recover from Wednesday’s CPI print which showed the Consumer Price Index had slumped to its lowest point since 1999, the Australian dollar recovered from lows of 0.7571 when valued against its US Counterpart. Fighting its way to an eventual high of 0.7659 the biggest event across forex markets yesterday came after the Bank of Japan surprised market participants by keeping monetary settings unchanged, a decision which sent global stocks broadly lower and the Yen higher. With the US dollar in a somewhat neutralised position for the time being investors will look towards to the RBA next Tuesday a decision which could well provide the next bout of volatility. This morning the Australian dollar opens 0.5 percent stronger at a rate of 0.7624.

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Today's expected range

AUD / USD
0.7570 - 0.7660
NZD / USD
0.6910 - 0.7020
GBP / AUD
1.9090 - 1.9200

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Last Week Market Recap

Monday 18th April 2016

Gained last week as Australia reported better than expected employment numbers and risk appetite favoured the commodity currencies over all other majors. The week began with the pair gaining a fraction after making its weekly low of 0.7527 on Monday in the absence of any significant data out of either country. The rate extended its gains on Tuesday after Australian NAB Business Confidence printed at 6 compared to a previous reading of 3. On Wednesday, the pair lost a fraction despite lower than expected U.S. Retail Sales and PPI numbers. The rate then made its weekly high of 0.7735 on Thursday after Australian Employment Change surged +26.1K compared to +18.6K expected, while the Unemployment Rate declined to 5.7% from 5.8% versus an expected increase to 5.9%. The pair continued higher on Friday as U.S. numbers continued to disappoint and after the RBA Financial Stability Review noted that, “In contrast to the global trend, participation in Australian dollar-denominated compression, by both Australian and foreign banks, has to date remained relatively low. Survey data suggest that no more than 10 per cent of notional principal outstanding was terminated via compression in the year to May 2015.” AUD/USD went on to close the week at 0.7720, with an overall gain of +2.2% for the week.

 

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