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Yen Rallies in Safe Haven Push

Monday 20th February

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar hit a three week high last week, despite being hampered by strong resistance levels at 0.7720. Opening below the 0.77 handle on Friday, there was little movement in intraday trading before pulling lower as the United States CM Leading Index figures impressed and continue to show strength in the US economy. The Greenback strengthened against the Aussie seeing an eventual low in the American trading session closing at 0.7760. Locally we look to RBA Monetary Policy Minutes on Tuesday along with FOMC minutes in focus Thursday. With Presidents Holiday cutting the trading week short, we expect it to be a quiet day with the Australian dollar opening at 0.7675.

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Today's expected range

AUD / USD
0.7600 - 0.7700
NZD / USD
0.7140 – 0.7240
GBP / AUD
1.6150 – 1.6250

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Last Week Market Recap

Monday 13th February 2017

Tread water last week as the RBA left interest rates unchanged with mixed economic numbers from both countries. The rate began the week selling off after Australian Retail Sales declined by -0.1% m/m versus an expected increase of +0.3%. The pair extended its losses on Tuesday, making its weekly low of 0.7605 after the RBA left its benchmark Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 1.50% as widely anticipated. The central bank’s Rate Statement noted that, “The outlook continues to be supported by the low level of interest rates. Financial institutions remain in a position to lend. The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment.”  The pair then gained a fraction on Wednesday as the United States reported a surplus of Crude Oil Inventories. On Thursday, the rate declined after comments from RBA Governor Lowe, who stated that, “The economy is in reasonable shape. As our record demonstrates, our economy does have a degree of resilience and flexibility that has allowed us to maintain stability during a pretty difficult time in the global economy. There is no reason that this can't continue.” The rate made its weekly high of 0.7688 on Friday after the RBA’s Monetary Policy Statement noted that, “The forecasts assume the current strength in commodity prices will be largely unwound. As such, the higher terms of trade are not expected to lead to a material change in mining investment, wages or household consumption.” AUD/USD closed the week at 0.7672, with a loss of a mere -4 pips and virtually unchanged for the week.  

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