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Clinton bests Trump bolstering demand and risk appetite

Wednesday 28th September 2016

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar edged higher through trade on Tuesday buoyed by increasing demand for risk and a diminishing demand for haven assets. In what was a quiet day for domestic markets the Aussie pushed through 0.7650 touching intraday highs at 0.7695. The AUD found support following the first US Presidential debate with pollsters indicating Clinton bested Trump. Support for commodity and emerging market currencies helped the Aussie break higher before meeting resistance on moves toward 0.77. With little of note on the domestic docket today attentions turn to RBA assistant governor Edey while U.S Durable goods orders and comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen drive offshore direction. 

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Today's expected range

0.7620 - 0.7720
0.7250 - 0.7350
1.6850 - 1.7050

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Last Week Market Recap

Monday 19th September 2016

Lost another fraction last week as asset flows favoured the Greenback over the Aussie with mixed economic numbers out of both economies. The week began on a positive note, with the rate gaining on Monday after RBA Assistant Governor Kent stated that, “The depreciation of the Australian dollar over recent years has improved Australia's competiveness and thereby supported production in the tradable sector. However, the depreciation didn't start in earnest until 18 months after the terms of trade had peaked. And while it is hard to be precise, our modelling suggests that the exchange rate (the real trade weighted index, or real TWI) has not depreciated by quite as much as might have been expected in response to the actual decline in the terms of trade (and the reductions in domestic interest rates).”The pair then fell sharply on Tuesday, making both its weekly high of 0.7567 and weekly low of 0.7441 despite Australian NAB Business Confidence, which printed at 6 versus a previous reading of 4. On Wednesday, the rate consolidated at a slightly higher level after lower than expected U.S. oil inventories and import price data. The pair gained ground on Thursday after lower than expected U.S. Retail Sales data and despite Australian Employment Change, which declined -3.9K, significantly lower than the +15.2K that was expected, nevertheless, the Australian Unemployment Rate declined to 5.6% from 5.7%. The rate then declined a fraction on Friday after better than expected U.S. CPI numbers. AUD/USD closed at 0.7492, with a net loss of -0.8% for the week.

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