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Aussie poised for break out as markets turn to quarterly inflation report

Wednesday 27th July 2016

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar rebounded strongly through trade on Tuesday breaking back through 0.75 U.S cents and touching intraday highs at 0.7541. Investors were buoyed by suggestions the Bank of Japan would fail to meet stimulus expectations and the AUD found support on demand for carry trades. Driving higher the AUD rally stalled on moves approaching 0.7545 as markets prepared for todays all important quarterly CPI print and FOMC rate statement. The quarterly inflation indicator is a critical marker in determining future RBA policy moves. A poor read will add credence to calls for an additional rate cut and could see the RBA board reduce rates as early as August.  With the Aussie poised to break into a significant bearish channel todays print is extremely important in determining short term direction with supports at 0.7285 - 0.7300 to be tested should the data fail to fall within the target band. 

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Today's expected range

AUD / USD
0.7285 - 0.7680
NZD / USD
0.6930 - 0.7180
GBP / AUD
1.7050 - 1.7950

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Last Week Market Recap

Monday 11th July 2016
Continued its rally last week as the RBA left interest rates unchanged and despite lower numbers out of Australia and improvements in U.S. employment data. The week began with the rate gaining on Monday as the United States observed a bank holiday and Australian Building Approvals declined -5.2% m/m compared to an expected decline of -3.6%. Tuesday saw the rate decline after the RBA left the benchmark Cash Rate unchanged at 1.75%. In the RBA’s Rate Statement noted that, “Financial markets have been volatile recently as investors have re-priced assets after the UK referendum. But most markets have continued to function effectively. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative. Any effects of the referendum outcome on global economic activity remain to be seen and, outside the effects on the UK economy itself, may be hard to discern.” On Wednesday, the pair rallied after making its weekly low of 0.7407 as the FOMC released their Meeting Minutes, as well as mixed U.S. trade and manufacturing data. The rate then lost ground on Thursday after positive U.S. employment numbers. The rate then made its weekly high of 0.7471 on Friday despite better than expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. AUD/USD closed at 0.7566, with a gain of +0.9% from its previous weekly close.   

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