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Risk appetite vanishes as investors flock to haven assets

Friday 12th February 2016
The Australian dollar failed to capitalise on broad based USD weakness through trade on Thursday bouncing about a spacious trading band between 0.70 and 0.7150 U.S cents. Despite a deep USD sell off the Aussie has remained relatively stable failing to exploit its higher yield potential. In a market where interest returns are negative or near zero; highlighted after Sweden’s Riksbank deepened its negative IR offering Thursday, one would anticipate the AUD to have benefitted from corrections made in US interest rate expectations. However the commodity driven currency remains vulnerable to risk trends as volatility and global fears continue to escalate while commodity prices remain under pressure capping gains and limiting upward rallies. Attentions today turn to Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens for affirmation the RBA will stand by its neutral policy stance

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Today's expected range

AUD / USD
0.6980 - 0.7180
NZD / USD
0.6590 - 6765
GBP / AUD
2.0250 - 2.0650

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Last Week Market Recap

Monday 1st February 2015

Extended its previous week’s gains last week as Australia reported better than expected economic numbers while the FOMC released a somewhat dovish statement. The week began with the pair declining on Monday after Australian NAB Business Confidence printed at 3 compared to a previous reading of 5. The rate then gained ground on Tuesday after making its weekly low of 0.6917 despite a better than expected U.S. consumer confidence number. The pair continued higher on Wednesday as the FOMC left rates unchanged and after Australian Trimmed Mean CPI increased +0.6% q/q versus +0.5% expected, while CPI increased +0.4%, in line with expectations. Thursday saw the rate extend its rally after Australian Import Prices declined -0.3% q/q compared to an expected decline of -0.8%, while the United States reported lower than expected U.S. Durable Goods Orders data. The pair then made its weekly high of 0.7140 on Friday before consolidating after Australian PPI increased +0.3% q/q versus +0.6% expected. AUD/USD closed at 0.7082, with an overall gain of +1.1% from its previous weekly close.

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