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Aussie Dollar slips against the Greenback heading towards 78c

Monday 23rd of October

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar edged lower into the close on Friday slipping below 0.7850 as the U.S dollar gained new momentum on the promise of Republican tax reform. Touching intraday lows at 0.7806 the AUD was driven lower by increased expectations the U.S tax reform will pass through both the House and Senate despite widespread condemnation from Democrats. Buoyed, the U.S dollar made its largest daily advance in more than a month and forced the Aussie lower as domestic drivers remained thin. The Australian dollar remains at the mercy of monetary policy expectations and with the RBA vehemently sticking to a neutral policy standing the short-medium term outlook remains bearish. Attentions now turn to Wednesday’s CPI print as the weeks big ticket macroeconomic item and while a strong read may put pressure on the RBA it is unlikely to drastically amend the timeline for a rate hike locally and we expect the AUD to meet resistance on moves approaching 0.79/0.7910.

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Today's expected range

AUD / USD
0.7780 - 0.7875
NZD / USD
0.6880 – 0.7000
GBP / AUD
1.6750 – 1.6900

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Last Week Market Recap

Monday 16th October 2017

AUD/USD gained a fraction last week as the United States reported mixed economic numbers, while Australian numbers were mostly better than expected. The week began with the pair declining and making its weekly low of 0.7746 on Monday in the absence of any significant data from either country. The rate began its rally on Tuesday after the Australian NAB Business Confidence index printed at 7 compared to a previous reading of 5. Alan Oster, Chief Economist for NAB noted that “The sustained weakness in retail conditions should justifiably be raising doubts around expectations for any imminent, and sustained rebound in consumer spending, although tough competition and other margin pressures are likely behind the result as well.” The pair continued fractionally higher on Wednesday after the release of the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes. On Thursday, the rate increased by another fraction after Australian MI Inflation Expectations printed at +4.3% versus a previous reading of +3.8%. The pair then made its weekly high of 0.7896 on Friday after the RBA Financial Stability Review noted that, “A number of policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks persist, which, if they were to escalate, could trigger a reappraisal of asset valuations and a spike in volatility while also weighing on the economic outlook.” AUD/USD closed at 0.7882, with an overall weekly gain of +0.9%. 

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