Loonie Softens into the End of the Week.
Friday 13 July, 2018
Daily Currency UpdateSoft commodities and risk aversion is keeping the Loonie defensive. The only event risk due today is Existing Home Sales in June, which is expected to print at 1.5%. Oil prices has stayed relatively flat leading into the end of the week.
Key MoversTrump has touched down in the UK yesterday for the first time as president. He’s already causing a stir by blasting PM May’s Brexit plans. Trump stated that if the UK does a soft Brexit, the US would rather deal with the EU instead and it would “kill” a UK-US trade deal. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell commented in an interview yesterday that the US economy is in a “good place” and that he is comfortable where the monetary policy currently sits, but the escalation of tariffs could pose a threat to future performance. Import and Export Price in June, University of Michigan Sentiment in July and Monetary Policy Report Release to Congress are all due this afternoon.
Traders are trying to get a firmer idea of when the ECB may raise rates from their negative level and the publication just re-iterated that they will remain on hold “through the summer of 2019.” It’s a quiet end to the week so Trump/trade will be the main driver of markets.
Donald Trump weighed in on the Brexit debate adding downward pressure to an already fragile Pound. In an interview with The Sun newspaper, Donald Trump undermined UK Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plan by saying “If they do a deal like that, we would be dealing with the European Union instead of dealing with the U.K., so it will probably kill the deal.” He also commented that ex-Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, who resigned over the proposed plan would make a “great prime minister.” The comments from the leader of a country many consider to be our closest ally will add to the argument of those who consider Theresa May a lame-duck PM with change at the top needed. Trumps comments have obviously rattled holder of the pound and it is lower across the board.
It’s a quiet start to next week from Down Under with Wednesday night's employment figures the only top-tier release due in the near-term.
Overnight saw the Business NZ Manufacturing Index drop to 52.8 from 54.4 adding downward pressure to an already fragile Kiwi. There is no high level data next week at all from NZ so Trump/trade will dictate the local dollar's direction.
- USD/CAD: 1.3152 - 1.3209 ▲
- CAD/EUR: 0.6510 - 0.6526 ▼
- CAD/GBP: 0.5753 - 0.5782 ▲
- CAD/AUD: 1.0241 - 1.0281 ▲
- CAD/NZD: 1.1203 - 1.1266 ▲