Currency OutlookCurrency Outlook

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The key drivers of currency direction through June are likely to be:

  • Employment data, especially in the US.
  • Surging commodity prices and inflation, which are areas of concern for G10 central banks. The currency market could respond to any commentary that suggests rising inflation is more than just a phase as this would likely require intervention from central banks.
  • Any commentary from the US Federal Reserve or other central banks around tapering of bond-buying programs.
  • The direction of the US dollar and whether the DXY index can sustain a move off 3-year lows, particularly given the strength across GBP and EUR.
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