Aussie dollar steady as markets eye FOMC minutes and Australian inflation expectations

Key Movers

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, edged lower on Wednesday after briefly touching a two-month high of 99.05. The retreat comes as traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, which are expected to offer fresh insight into the central bank’s outlook on interest rates. In its September meeting, the Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.00%–4.25%. Alongside the cut, policymakers maintained a dovish tone, projecting two more rate reductions before year-end. This outlook is largely priced in by financial markets, with the CME FedWatch tool showing an implied probability above 80% for a 25-basis-point cut at each of the next two meetings. Despite this broadly dovish expectation, market sentiment remains fragile. Investors are particularly focused on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, due later today, for confirmation of the Fed’s policy trajectory. Any indication that the central bank may slow or accelerate its pace of easing could trigger renewed volatility in currency and bond markets. Adding to the uncertainty is the ongoing US government shutdown, now entering its second week. The budget standoff in Congress has already disrupted several key economic data releases, including the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The lack of timely data is complicating the Fed’s ability to assess the health of the economy, while also unsettling investors who rely on those indicators to guide their expectations. Analysts warn that a prolonged shutdown could further dampen confidence and weigh on economic growth, potentially increasing pressure on the Fed to act more aggressively in the coming months. At the same time, the absence of official data could force the central bank to rely more heavily on private sector estimates and high-frequency indicators, which may introduce additional uncertainty into the policymaking process. Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on any signals from the FOMC minutes that clarify whether the Fed remains on course for further cuts, or if a more data-dependent, wait-and-see approach will prevail. In the meantime, the DXY remains within striking distance of recent highs, but vulnerable to shifts in risk sentiment and evolving expectations around US fiscal and monetary policy.