Home Daily Commentaries Tariff uncertainty again prompts AUD sell-off

Tariff uncertainty again prompts AUD sell-off

Matt Richardson
Written by
Matt Richardson

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange.

| Tuesday 8 July, 2025

Daily Currency Update

The US trade agenda is again front and centre as the pivotal July 9 deadline for the end of the pause of Liberation Day tariffs looms large. While the deadline for negotiation has been extended to August 1, President Trump has already begun announcing plans to raise tariffs against key trading partners. Both South Korea and Japan received letters on Monday, informing them of a 25% increase in tariffs. With letters also sent to Kazakhstan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar and South Africa, and more announcements expected to follow through the week ahead, the market is on tenterhooks.

Trump had signalled on Friday that letters would begin going out to trading partners, prompting a risk-off move into the weekly close. Risk aversion has remained elevated through the start of the new week, with risk assets and commodity currencies extending losses. Having opened north of US$0.6550, the AUD has slipped back below US$0.65, marking overnight lows at US$0.6487. In addition to giving up ground against the USD, the AUD has fallen against the euro and pound as well, testing supports at 0.5525 euro cents and 0.4770 pence overnight.

Our attention today remains with US trade headlines while the RBA policy meeting and press conference dominate the local agenda. After a string of softer macroeconomic growth markers, markets are anticipating policymakers will lower rates by 25-basis points. We expect a cut, accompanied by a somewhat hawkish forward forecast. The RBA will be conscious of not hinting at future rate cuts, preferring to maintain a neutral stance. We are keenly attuned to any signal the RBA offers as to the path of Monetary policy through H2 2025.

Key Movers

Direction has again been dominated by the US trade agenda as President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent have begun issuing letters informing key trading partners of the intended implementation of tariffs previously put on hold after Liberation Day. Japan and South Korea were the first targets sighted in the President's crosshairs, while another 7 letters have been delivered today. With the letters posted to Truth Social, it appears there has been little change to the program announced on Liberation Day.

The Japanese yen gave up 1.1%, while risk assets and commodity currencies tumbled as markets attempt to price the impact of the US trade agenda on global growth. With the deadline for implementation extended to August 1, losses have been well contained, but risk aversion will remain elevated as markets react to ever-changing scenarios and new tariff announcements. US Treasury yields are higher across the curve while the euro and GBP both traded lower overnight.

We are closely attuned to all ongoing tariff announcements.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6550 ▼
  • AUD/EUR: 0.5480 - 0.5580 ▼
  • GBP/AUD: 2.0800 - 2.1100 ▲
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.0900 ▼
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8820 - 0.8920 ▼

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.

View previous day