NZD under pressure as markets eye RBNZ rate cut

Key Movers

The euro has been the big mover through the last 24 hours, tumbling to its lowest level in 13 months amid French political instability, dovish ECB commentary and another escalation in the Russia/Ukraine war. Russia is reported to have launched a new ballistic missile into Ukraine, striking the city of Dnipro, further escalating tensions as the threat of nuclear weapons looms.

In France, Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Assembly and Far Right national Rally party, warned Premier Michel Barnier that if demands for budget amendments were not met she would have no choice but to call a no confidence vote. There has been growing opposition within the National Assembly to this latest budget with hundreds of amendments put forward, yet it appears Barnier will utilise constitutional powers to push the budget through. In such an instance, we will likely see a no confidence vote called and with French political stability exposed at June’s snap election, the prospect of another hung parliament looms large.

The euro fell below 1.05, sliding to its worst level since October 2023 touching 1.0462, spilling over into the GBP and allowing the US dollar index to mark another 2024 high. Our attentions turn now to Japan CPI data, US, UK and euro area PMI’s, UK retail sales and US consumer sentiment as key macro drivers. Political and geopolitical headlines through Europe and the US continue to steer sentiment into the weekly close.