US data is anticipated today
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Daily Currency Update
The German IFO business climate data released on Wednesday signaled a resurgence of optimism, marking its third consecutive increase. This data contributes to significant evidence of the German economy reaching a turning point and beginning to emerge from a downturn. The upturn was notably fueled by improvements in both current assessments and expectations components. Meanwhile, in the United States, durable goods orders surged by 2.6%, equivalent to $7.3 billion in March. Notably, the transportation equipment sector led this positive trend with a remarkable increase of 7.7%. However, excluding transportation, new orders experienced a more modest growth of 0.2% for the reported month. These figures surpassed the forecasted 2.5% increase, representing a significant jump from the previous 1.3%.GBP/USD was at 1.2300 on Monday but has been on the rise since and sits just under 1.2500 this morning. GBP/EUR has also been on the incline and is back above 1.1650. As we have seen USD selling this week due to the change in sentiment about interest rate cuts in the US, EUR/USD has advanced back above 1.0700.
Key Movers
The key data releases come from the US today. Advanced GDP quarter-on-quarter is expected to fall from the previous 3.4% to a forecast figure of 2.5%. Unemployment claims are expected to see a small uptick from the previous 212k to 214k. Month-on-month pending home sales are expected to drop to 0.3%, based on the previous month's 1.6%. Market participants will monitor these releases closely for indicators of how the Fed may react to future interest rate decisions. This is ahead of tomorrow's US core PCE price index, which is arguably the headline data release for this week.Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.2410 - 1.2580 ▲
- GBP/EUR: 1.1610 - 1.1730 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 1.9090 - 1.9270 ▲
- EUR/USD: 1.0610 - 1.0810 ▲