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Dollar shows weakness ahead of Fed interest rate decision

Wednesday 14 December, 2022

Daily Currency Update

The US dollar is falling against most of its major currency counterparts early Wednesday as investors await the final FOMC rate announcement for 2022. The consensus is for the Fed to raise interest rates by 50bps down from the previous four meeting's increase of 75bps. This comes as a result of yesterday's CPI report which has indicated inflation has seemed to have peaked. Core CPI rose by a mere 0.2% , below economists’ forecasts. The DXY (dollar index) fell slightly to 103.91, after reaching a six-month intraday low of 103.57 following the inflation data release. Currently trading at 103.8.

Key Movers

The EUR managed to hold and trade above 1.06500 against the USD today as the pair is gaining bullish support due to the US dollar struggling to find demand ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. In the UK, annualized inflation came in at 10.7 % for November down from 11.1% in October. November's CPI figures still maintain the pressure on the central bank to hike the benchmark interest rate at its next meeting on Thursday. The monetary policy committee is widely predicted by market analysts to raise the rate by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5 percent. GBP/USD saw a drop of roughly 15bps to 1.2350 from the initial reaction of the UK inflation data. It currently is trading at 1.2392. Statistics Canada released the October Canada manufacturing sales report today, coming in at 2.8% vs 2.0%. Crude oil prices have risen for the third consecutive day and are now further from the year-to-date low set last week. The Canadian dollar dipped against the US dollar on Wednesday but held onto most of the previous day's gains. This came as investors evaluated domestic manufacturing data and prepared for an expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3565.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/USD: 1.0616 - 1.0667 ▲
  • GBP/USD: 1.2345 - 1.2418 ▲
  • AUD/USD: 0.6822 - 0.6883 ▲
  • USD/CAD: 1.3528 - 1.3578 ▲