The Loonie had its “black Friday,” falling 1.3 percent against the US dollar in last Friday's trading session. When Statistics Canada released Q4 GDP numbers, it came in at 0.4 percent annualized versus an expected 1.0 percent. The anecdote was that the data was wrongly announced early on Statistics Canada’s website, giving some market participants an early advantage on the release and adding to the initial bearish sentiment. One hour after, the manufacturing PMI data was released and came in at 52.6 when the previous one was 53.0, which added more negative sentiment against the Canadian dollar. On top of that, one hour later, the price of “black gold,” Canada’s most important export commodity, plunged 2.6 percent in a few minutes.
The Bank of Canada might not move its interest rate this week, after the negative data released last Friday. Furthermore, the Loonie might continue to be under pressure if crude oil doesn’t keep going higher or if President Trump goes back on Twitter to oppose high oil prices.
Technically speaking, as mention during the last week, the technical uptrend is still intact. The USD/CAD continued rising in overnight trading session, touching an intraday resistance of 1.3325. If that level is broken during this week, it might visit the 1.3375 level. However, given that fast move to the upside, it might also test lower levels such as 1.3280 and even 1.3250 levels during the week. For now, crude oil is rising over 1 percent, which means that the USD/CAD might have a retracement in the next few hours or days.