Home Daily Commentaries NZD edged lower as markets hold back bigger moves ahead of trade deadline and US payroll data

NZD edged lower as markets hold back bigger moves ahead of trade deadline and US payroll data

Matt Richardson
Written by
Matt Richardson

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange.

| Thursday 3 July, 2025

Daily Currency Update

The NZD tracked a narrow range Wednesday, bouncing between US$0.6050 and US$0.61. With little of note on the domestic docket, the currency drifted sideways through the local session before giving up ground to the USD ahead of payroll data and key trade headlines. Having pushed toward an intraday low At US$0.6053, the NZD found support as weaker ADP payroll data and a renewed demand for risk. President Trump announced a trade agreement had been reached with Vietnam, confirming the administration was confident other trade deals “would come easy”. Having pushed back toward US$0.6090, the NZD opens this morning buying US$0.6085.

Our attentions now turn to US Non-farm payroll numbers (out a day early this month in observance of Independence Day on Friday). We are closely attending to the unemployment rate and payroll gains, while jobless claims will help round out the US labour market picture. Elsewhere, China Services PMI and the European Central Bank's June minutes round out the macro ticket.

Key Movers

The US dollar DXY index was little changed on Wednesday, as gains won against the pound and euro were offset by losses marked against the yen. The pound was a standout underperformer, down nearly 1% after UK gilt yields plunged amid rising fiscal concerns. Friction within the UK government's ranks and fear for the current fiscal backdrop elevated calls for the Chancellor of the Exchequer to step down. The move is a reminder that budget concerns and fiscal challenges are not solely isolated to the US. Having slipped below 1.37 and 1.36, Sterling tumbled toward an intraday low of 1.3567 before finding support, edging back toward 1.3650 ahead of this morning’s open.

Our attention today remains with UK fiscal concerns, US trace headlines and Non-farm payroll data. After a softer ADP payroll print last night, we're keenly attuned to payroll gains through June and the updated unemployment rate as key markers governing potential Fed policy direction.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.6020 - 0.6130 ▼
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5100 - 0.5200 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 2.2200 - 2.2600 ▼
  • NZD/AUD: 0.9220 - 0.9280 ▼
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8250 - 0.8350 ▼

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.

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