Home Daily Commentaries AUD holds break above US$0.65 as attentions affixed to US/China trade talks

AUD holds break above US$0.65 as attentions affixed to US/China trade talks

Daily Currency Update

The AUD outperformed through trade on Monday as the US dollar continues to relinquish ground to its major trading partners. With domestic markets closed in observance of the King’s birthday long weekend price action through the session was well contained. Having edged back below US$0.65 on Friday evening after US Non-farm payroll data printed marginally ahead of market expectation the AUD started the new week trading between US$0.6490- US$0.6510. US/China trade talks absorbed much of the markets attentions as key officials met in London. Early reporting suggests the talks have been productive with US commerce secretary Lutnick announcing the talks were “Fruitful”. The main agenda item thus far appears to be expert controls with the US agreeing to ease restrictions on the export of semi-conductors while China will release more rare earths. the de-escalation in tensions helped improve sentiment and lifted the AUD back above US$0.6520. While it was unable to extend toward last weeks 2025 high it has held onto gains above US$0.65 leading into this morning’s open.

Our attentions turn now to Westpac’s domestic consumer sentiment report and NAB’s business survey, while UK labour data US small business data round out the macro ticket. US/China trade talks will continue to drive sentiment.

Key Movers

The US dollar has underperformed again when values back against other majors with the DXY index down 0.2%. Having found momentum into last weeks close after US non-farm payrolls printed marginally above expectations the USD resumed its softer trajectory Monday unable to push against a decline in US treasury yields as markets move to price in Fed rate cuts. Payrolls data allowed markets to pare back expectations for a larger rate adjustment but analyst are still pricing two full 25 point adjustments before year end. With US/China trade talks reportedly proving “Fruitful” sentiment improved through Monday. The Euro held above 1.14, tracking between 1.1390 and 1.1440, as Sterling held above 1.35 and the Yen forced a break back below 144.50 and toward 144.

Our attentions today turn to UK labour data while US/China trade talks drive sentiment and underlying direction.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6430 - 0.6550 ▲
  • AUD/EUR: 0.5650 - 0.5750 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 2.0700 - 2.0900 ▼
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0750 - 1.0850 ▼
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8880 - 0.8980 ▲

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.