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AUD steady on further tariffs

Daily Currency Update

For most of yesterday’s trading session, the AUD traded within a tight range despite US President, Donald Trump mentioning that he may add a 10% tariff on China as soon as February 1. Coupled with soft numbers in the AU Leading Index, the day closed with less volatility than the previous few days. A slight uptick in iron ore, coking coal and gold didn’t ignite much optimism either, despite the bullion coming closer to all-time highs.

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology gave further insight into which industries would be specifically targeted for growth and the list included: steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, automobiles, power equipment, light industry and electronics. It seems that higher specialisation in these fields would help to combat against future tariff threats.

The AUD reached a high of 0.6297 in the European trading session and slid slightly to open this morning around the 0.6273 mark.

Key Movers

President Trump’s comments stating he may slap 10% tariffs on China as soon as next month has potential to be a mover, however, the market shrugged off these comments. China responding with growth initiatives for key industries has so far prevented too much fall out. Any sort of commentary that mentions higher tariffs on China would add further volatility.

Oil futures have continued to slide after increased production comments from Trump. He is expected to give a speech at the World Economic Forum via satellite link later tonight.

The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision this Friday is still one to watch. It's expected that BoJ Governor Ueda will respond to both local and international developments. Markets are pricing in a high chance of a 0.25% rise.

News today:

NZ – Visitor Arrivals

JP – Trade Balance

UK – CBI Industrial Order Expectations

CA – Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales

US – Unemployment Claims

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6170 - 0.6350 ▲
  • AUD/EUR: 0.5980 - 0.6050 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.9500 - 1.9800 ▼
  • AUD/NZD: 1.1010 - 1.1120 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8920 - 0.095 ▲