Aussie dollar trades back down below US$0.66
Written by
Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6569 at time of writing. The Aussie dollar reached a high of 0.6634 yesterday, but traded back down at the lows of the day, during the US session on Thursday, after a batch of relatively strong American data helped the US dollar (USD) claw back lost ground. On the data front yesterday a shock surge in employment last month has seen the unemployment rate tumble back to levels not seen since September last year. The unemployment rate has dropped back to 3.7 per cent with more than 116,000 extra Australians in employment last month, compared with January, according to seasonally adjusted data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimated 116,500 increase in employment was the biggest monthly jobs gain since the east coast COVID lockdowns ended in November 2021, and the largest on record outside of the pandemic period. Economists were generally expecting about 40,000 extra people to be employed last month and an unemployment rate of 4 per cent. Markets are currently pricing in an 80 per cent chance of rates falling by August, while a rate cut by September is almost fully priced in, however any rate move before then is seen as very unlikely. Looking ahead today and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the Financial Stability Review. It's an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability, the evidence on strains and imbalances can provide insight into the future of monetary policy.Key Movers
In the US, overnight we saw the release of US PMI data for March, Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which all supported the USD. Business activity in the US private sector continued to expand at a healthy pace in early March, with the S&P Global Composite PMI coming in at 52.2. This reading came in slightly below the February's 52.5. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.5 from 52.2 in the same period, while S&P Global Services PMI edged lower to 51.7 from 52.3. The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index remained in positive territory for a second straight month, indicating continued expansion. In March, the index inched down to 3.2 from 5.2 in February, coming in above the forecast of -2.6. In the latest report the index remained in positive territory for a second straight month. This is only the fourth positive reading for the index in the past 22 months. In other words, the index has had 18 negative readings in the past 22 months, which more closely resembles those periods during recessions. While the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, sales of previously owned homes increased by the most in a year in February, signs the economy remained on solid footing in the first quarter. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 for the week ending March 16, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims in the latest week. Claims have been mostly bouncing around a 200,000-213,000 range since February. Despite a flurry of high-profile layoffs at the start of the year, employers have largely been hoarding labour after struggling to find workers during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6465 - 0.6665 ▼
- AUD/EUR: 0.5940 - 0.6140 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 1.9140 - 1.9340 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.0750 - 1.0950 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.8780 - 0.8980 ▼