Home Daily Commentaries Continued debt ceiling talks support USD

Continued debt ceiling talks support USD

Daily Currency Update

The USD has been up all week with no deal on the debt ceiling issue in Washington. There are whispers this morning of a possible decision, markets will be keeping a close eye on the US for that announcement. The greenback is approaching resistance points against major currencies as stock markets head towards a higher open to finish the week which means we could see a reversal in the USD. In data news, the Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) report, the Federal Open Market Committee’s preferred method for measuring inflation, was released this morning showing prices up 4.7% year-over-year in April. The University of Michigan will also release its consumer confidence numbers this morning at 10 am EST. This is forecasted to drop to 57.7 from 63.5 last month, showing anticipation of a recession amongst consumers.

Key Movers

The GBP/USD pair is regaining strength as British retail sales rebounded in April. Retail sales increased 0.5% month-over-month adding strength to this pair.

In oil news, we are seeing mixed signals from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ahead of their June 4th meeting. Key OPEC figures continue to disagree on possible cuts to production numbers leaving prices up in the air.

The Canadian dollar has been falling all week against the USD. As the pair slides, the CAD hits a resistance point that we have seen 4 times in the last 6 months. Pushing the CAD lower is the lack of Canadian data leaves the Loonie open to pressure from US data. Another factor contributing to the Canadian dollar weakness is the reversal in oil prices and OPEC’s struggles to establish production quotas.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/USD: 1.0711 - 1.0816 ▲
  • GBP/USD: 1.2309 - 1.2413 ▲
  • AUD/USD: 0.6494 - 0.6585 ▲
  • USD/CAD: 1.3604 - 1.3685 ▼