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US dollar gains ahead of inflation data

Daily Currency Update

USD - United States Dollar

The US dollar edged higher against a basket of currencies on Monday as rising COVID-19 cases helped boost the demand for the safe-haven dollar. The US Dollar Index was up 0.13%, trading around 92.71 at the time of writing.

In an attempt to increase vaccination rollout across the US, President Biden is scheduled to address the public around new vaccination rules. Staff in healthcare systems receiving Medicaid and Medicare funding must be vaccinated, with rare exemptions for medical reasons.

Businesses with more than 100 employees must require either vaccination or weekly testing. In addition, large businesses must offer paid time off for employees and their families to receive the vaccines and recover from any side effects. Improved US vaccine rollout could improve global risk appetite, as investors look to move their positions from the safety of the US dollar to other, higher yielding commodity currencies.

US consumer price data is due on Tuesday which could give a broad view of the state of inflation and the economy ahead of next week’s US Federal Reserve meeting.

Key Movers

The pound was slightly up against the dollar despite a high number of COVID-19 cases. GBPUSD was trading around 1.3835 at the time of writing. On Tuesday, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is scheduled to outline his response to the potential spike in COVID-19 cases during the winter months in order to protect the NHS from being overrun. He is expected to reiterate that he currently sees no reason for further lockdowns, however there may be a period in which people are encouraged to work from home and that protective masks will once again become mandatory in certain areas. The pound could weaken on the back of this announcement as investors become nervous about the knock-on effect of COVID-19 on the UK economy.

EURUSD was down 0.13%, trading at 1.1796 at the time of writing. Some investors think the pair could remain under pressure due to concerns around rising inflation in the US and the Eurozone, as well as uncertainty over the upcoming German elections.

The Canadian dollar strengthened against the US dollar as oil prices edged higher. The Canadian economy showed signs of improvement as the latest employment release showed an increase in jobs of 90,000 added in August and the unemployment rate declined to 7.1% for the year. USDCAD was down 0.31%, trading around 1.2651 at the time of writing.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/USD: 1.1771 - 1.1817 ▼
  • GBP/USD: 1.3801 - 1.3845 ▲
  • AUD/USD: 0.7337 - 0.7368 ▲
  • USD/CAD: 1.2653 - 1.2693 ▼