Home Daily Commentaries Brexit back in focus as MPs return to parliament

Brexit back in focus as MPs return to parliament

Daily Currency Update

GBP - British PoundWith MPs having a couple of weeks off for their Easter recess there has been some welcome respite from Brexit related news however they are back at their desks today so expect the UK's delayed departure from the EU to return to the fore. UK PM, Theresa May is expected to resume cross party talks with Labour in an effort to break the deadlock however a more pressing issue this week could come from grass root Tories in councils around the country calling for her to resign. Although May survived a leadership challenge in December and cannot face another within a year, this kind of attack on her, if combined with renewed calls from dissatisfied fellow Conservative MPs may force the backbench 1922 committee into calling for her to go. Given her track record of holding on and refusing to resign it seems unlikely this will get anywhere however it again highlights the deep divisions within her party.UK data is thin on the ground this week with only Wednesday's Public Sector Net Borrowing numbers of note. Dont expect too much movement on the back of this however as sterling's direction will be dictated by Brexit related news.

Key Movers

Away from Brexit this weeks main data will be Friday's Advanced GDP reading for Q1 2019. An annualised reading of 2.2% is eyed which will mirror the previous quarter's reading. Trade talks are ongoing between China and the US with reports saying progress is being made however details remain vague and there is still no estimates on when we will see a signed agreement between the two sides. The euro remains pressured this week with EUR/USD down to 1.1240 after last weeks miserable German Manufacturing PMI. The closely followed survey showed a modestly healthy domestic picture however its exports sector is suffering on falling global demand with confidence shown to be at its lowest in six and half years. GBP/EUR is up to 1.1550 at present.Tuesday night sees inflation numbers from Australia with a quarterly uptick of 0.2% predicted. Wednesday sees the Bank of Canada's latest interest rate decision with no change in policy expected. Japans central bank is also expected to stay put on rates on Thursday. Australia and New Zealand remember the sacrifices made by members of their armed forces on Thursday with the annual ANZAC day holiday.

Expected Ranges

  • GBP/USD: 1.2960 - 1.3050 ▼
  • GBP/EUR: 1.1505 - 1.1605 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.8180 - 1.8320 ▲
  • GBP/NZD: 1.9425 - 1.96 ▲
  • GBP/CAD: 1.7310 - 1.7450 ▲