The key drivers below could affect investor risk sentiment and currency markets from late October through to mid-November:
- A crowded central bank calendar, with the Bank of Canada (BoC), Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and Federal Reserve all deciding interest rates on October 28, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on October 29, Bank of Japan (BoJ) betweenOctober 29–30, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on November 3 and Bank of England(BoE) on November 5. Energy-driven inflation linked to the Middle East conflict keeps hike/hold uncertainty alive at several of them.
- A heavy political and fiscal calendar, including the UK Autumn Budget on October 28, the US midterm elections on November 3 and New Zealand’s general election on November 7, alongside ongoing French budget negotiations that have pushed French borrowing costs higher.
- Key data feeding into those decisions includes Australian inflation (October 28), eurozone growth (October 30) and inflation (November 4), and US and Canadian jobs reports (November 6).
- US dollar strength, with the US Dollar Index touching its highest level since April 2025 on October 5 after the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023 and US 10-year Treasury yields above 5%. The Fed’s October 28 decision and the midterms will likely test how far that strength can run.
EUR | Euro
The euro sits near 17-month lows against the US dollar, with the European Central Bank’s October 29 decision and early November inflation data the next tests.
The euro reversed its summer recovery through September and early October. EURUSD fell from above $1.16 in early September to a 17-month low of $1.1161 on October 5, before steadying near $1.123. A firmer US dollar after the Federal Reserve’s September hike and renewed pressure on French government bonds, with 10-year yields near 4.85% on October 7, have both weighed.
The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, its second hike of the year. Eurozone inflation reached 3.8% in September, the highest since September 2023, driven by an 18.8% jump in energy prices. Even so, many investors expect fewer interest rate rises. ING said markets are pricing in around 45 basis points of rate increases by March, down from 80 basis points at the end of September.
The ECB decides on October 29, followed by third-quarter growth data on October 30 and October flash inflation on November 4. Signals of further hikes could support the euro, while the French budget talks and the US dollar’s response to the November 3 midterms are also likely to drive EURUSD into mid-November.
Expected ranges:
- EURUSD 1.1000–1.1400
- EURGBP 0.8350–0.8600
GBP | Sterling
Sterling holds near one-year highs against the euro but close to three-month lows against the US dollar, with the October 28 Autumn Budget and November 5 Bank of England decision ahead.
Sterling’s picture has split in two. Against the euro, the pound climbed to 1.1924 on October 21, its strongest level since June 2025, as French fiscal pressures weighed on the single currency.
Against the US dollar, GBPUSD slipped from around $1.355 in early September to a three-month low near $1.318 on October 1, and has since traded around $1.33
The Bank of England held the Bank Rate at 3.75% on September 17 in a 6–3 vote, with three members backing a hike to 4%. UK inflation came in at 3.5% in September, after 3.1% in August, and the Bank expects it to reach around 3.75% in the final quarter of the year, largely due to higher energy costs. Even so, many investors have become less convinced that many more rate rises are coming, with expectations for further increases by March falling in recent weeks. This could limit support for the pound, as currencies tend to benefit when markets expect higher interest rates.
The Autumn Budget on October 28 is the first major test. Previous UK fiscal events have moved gilts and sterling, and markets are likely to focus on borrowing plans and how they fit the government’s fiscal rules. The Bank of England then decides on November 5, alongside its new Monetary Policy Report. A hawkish shift could support the pound, while renewed fiscal concerns could see recent gains pared back.
Expected ranges:
- GBPUSD 1.3000–1.3450
- GBPEUR 1.1650–1.1950
AUD | Australian dollar
The Australian dollar has slipped below US$0.70 despite a fourth Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike this year, with October 28 inflation data and the November 3 RBA decision ahead.
AUDUSD has given back its late-August rally. After climbing to around $0.718 following a hotter-than-expected July inflation print, the pair drifted lower through September as the US dollar strengthened, trading near $0.700 in early October.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on September 29, its fourth hike of 2026 and the highest level since late 2011. The Board said it would do what is necessary to return inflation to target, including raising rates further if needed, but Governor Michele Bullock’s more cautious tone at her press conference weighed on the currency. Markets priced roughly a one-in-three chance of another hike in November, according to Reuters, while ANZ forecasts a further rise to 4.85%.
September inflation data on October 28, which includes the quarterly figures the RBA watches closely, is a key input ahead of the November 3 decision and new Statement on Monetary Policy. That meeting falls on the same day as the US midterms. Stronger-than-expected inflation could revive hike expectations and support the Australian dollar, while continued US dollar strength or weaker global risk appetite could keep AUDUSD under pressure.
Expected ranges:
- AUDUSD 0.6800–0.7150
- AUDEUR 0.6050–0.6350
- AUDGBP 0.5150–0.5400
- AUDNZD 1.2150–1.2650
NZD New Zealand dollar
The New Zealand dollar sits near its lowest level since late 2025, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s October 28 decision and the November 7 general election in quick succession.
NZDUSD fell for six consecutive weeks, giving back almost all of its late-June to August rally. The pair dropped from around $0.598 at the end of August to US$0.5594 in early October, its lowest level since late last year, before steadying just above $0.57. A stronger US dollar, high oil prices and New Zealand’s relatively low interest rates have all weighed on the kiwi.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.75% on 2 September, its second consecutive rate increase, and signalled that further tightening may be needed if inflation remains elevated. Third-quarter inflation came in at 3.7% year-on-year in the September quarter, down from 4.1% in Q2 but still above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range. Markets remain divided on the outlook for the next OCR decision on 28 October, with expectations for another hike fluctuating as investors weigh inflation risks against signs of a slowing economy.
Expected ranges:
- NZDUSD 0.5450–0.5800
USD | United States dollar
The US dollar sits near 18-month highs after the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023, with the October 28 Fed decision, November 3 midterms and November 6 jobs report ahead.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rallied through September and into October, touching 102.54 on October 5, its highest level since April 2025, before easing back toward 102 in mid-October.
Recent US data has been more mixed. Annual PCE inflation eased to 3.4% in August from 3.7% in July, September payrolls rose by 29,000, and September CPI showed annual inflation accelerating to 3.7% from 3.4% in August, while core CPI rose to 2.6% from 2.4%.
Markets have moved to price a high chance that the Fed holds at its October 27-28 meeting, though another rate hike later this year remains a possibility, with markets continuing to see December as the more likely timing for any further tightening
The November 3 midterm elections add another layer of uncertainty. Markets are likely to focus less on the result itself and more on what it could mean for spending, trade policy and future Fed decisions. October payrolls follow on November 6, an important input for December. Volatility could pick up around the vote and the data that follows.
Expected range:
- DXY 100.50–104.00
JPY | Japanese yen
The yen has weakened back toward 158 per US dollar despite the Bank of Japan’s September rate hike, with its October 29–30 meeting and intervention risk in focus.
USDJPY has climbed steadily since mid-September, trading around 158 in mid-October after briefly testing levels close to 159, its highest range in several months. The yen briefly strengthened toward 154.50 in early September on expectations of a Bank of Japan hike, but gave those gains back once the decision was made and the US dollar firmed after the Federal Reserve’s own rate rise.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18, the highest level since 1995. However, the 7–2 vote and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s cautious tone suggested no rush to tighten further, and the yen weakened into the 157 range on the day. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s push for expansionary fiscal policy, including a proposed cut to the consumption tax on food, has added to pressure on the currency.
The Bank’s next decision falls on October 29-30, a day after the Fed, alongside its quarterly Outlook Report. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has said Japan will not hesitate to conduct further intervention following this summer’s action in the currency market. A more hawkish Bank of Japan or renewed intervention could see USD/JPY move lower, while a wide US-Japan rate gap could keep the pair near recent highs.
Expected range:
- USDJPY 154.50–161.00
CAD | Canadian dollar
The Canadian dollar sits near 17-month lows against the US dollar as the trade dispute with Washington has escalated, with the Bank of Canada deciding on October 28.
USDCAD rallied sharply through September, rising from near 1.376 in the second week of the month to 1.4237 on September 30, and trading around 1.426 in early October, briefly touching 1.43 in mid-October before easing back toward 1.41-1.42. In CADUSD terms, the Canadian dollar slipped from around 72.5 US cents to roughly 70 cents, its weakest level since April 2025
The trade dispute has intensified. Canada’s counter-tariffs on around C$27.6 billion of US imports took effect on September 8, and the US responded with a ban on nearly US$1 billion of selected Canadian products from September 29. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, its seventh consecutive hold, though Governor Tiff Macklem said upside risks to inflation have increased while tariffs make growth prospects more uncertain. After losing 42,000 jobs in August, Canada lost a further 68,000 jobs in September, pushing the unemployment rate up to 6.5%, and September inflation came in at 3.1% year-on-year, up from 3.0% in August, with higher fuel prices the main driver of the increase
The Bank’s October 28 decision and Monetary Policy Report are the next test, with October jobs data on November 6. Further tariff escalation could keep pressure on the Canadian dollar, while easing trade tensions or firmer domestic data could help it recover some ground.
Expected range:
- CADUSD 0.6900–0.7150
SGD | Singapore dollar
USDSGD has held near 1.28 on broad US dollar strength. With the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s October review complete, the US dollar’s direction after October 28 is a key driver.
The Singapore dollar has held up better than many other Asian currencies despite the US dollar’s rally. USD/SGD rose from the mid-1.27s to around 1.28 in late September, its highest level since mid-August, before easing back towards 1.27 in mid-October. While the US dollar has strengthened broadly, the Singapore dollar has remained relatively resilient compared with many regional peers.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore left monetary policy unchanged on 14 October 2026, maintaining the current path for the Singapore dollar against a basket of major trading-partner currencies. As highlighted by the Authority, a gradually stronger Singapore dollar can help reduce the cost of imports and ease inflationary pressures. Ahead of the decision, Standard Chartered and OCBC had expected a further modest tightening, while Commerzbank anticipated no change
With the review behind it, USDSGD is likely to take its lead from the US dollar and US yields through the Fed’s October 28 decision and the November 3 midterms. Tighter policy settings or a softer US dollar could see USDSGD test toward 1.26, while continued US dollar strength or rising trade tensions weighing on Singapore’s export-driven economy could push the pair back toward 1.29.
Expected range:
- USDSGD 1.2600–1.2950
HKD | Hong Kong dollar
The Hong Kong dollar sits close to the 7.85 weak-side limit of its trading band, with the Fed’s October 28 decision an important swing factor for Hong Kong interest rates.
USDHKD has continued to edge higher within Hong Kong’s Linked Exchange Rate System, moving closer to the 7.85 weak-side convertibility undertaking and has recently traded around 7.848, just shy of the 7.85 weak-side limit of Hong Kong’s currency peg. Eddie Yue, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said in early October that the Hong Kong dollar had been moving toward the weak side since mid-June, as a widening interest rate gap with the US encouraged carry trades and equity-related demand for the currency slowed.
The Authority’s base rate moves in lockstep with the Federal Reserve and now sits at 4.25% following the Fed’s September hike, while overnight HIBOR has traded around 2.55%, well below equivalent US rates. Seasonal demand linked to quarter-end and dividend payments has also eased.
If the pair reaches 7.85, the Authority buys Hong Kong dollars to defend the band, which reduces interbank liquidity and can push local interest rates higher. The Fed’s October 28 decision is a key swing factor for the rate gap, with the November 3 midterms and November 6 US jobs data also in view. Barring a shift there, USDHKD is likely to remain near the weak end of its band.
Expected range:
- USDHKD 7.8350–7.8500
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