Home Daily Commentaries DXY hits 3-month high following CPI data

DXY hits 3-month high following CPI data

Justin Kapadia
Written by
Justin Kapadia

Justin Kapadia

OFXpert

With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Justin loves diving into the complexities of foreign exchange markets and is passionate about developing effective strategies to help protect businesses.

| Wednesday 14 February, 2024

Daily Currency Update

The US dollar has been resilient, showing a decent rally despite a surprise uptick in the ever-so-sticky US inflation data released yesterday. It appeared that markets wrote off the inflated Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers as a one-off increase which has led to little effect on the USD. In data news, the weekly Mortgage Applications Index contracted by 2.3%, coming from a positive 3.7% last week. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note traded near 4.29% this morning, a touch softer from its peak on Tuesday at 4.33%. Markets may take more cues from the upcoming speeches of two US Federal Reserve speakers, Chicago Fed member Austan Goolsbee and Fed’s Vice Chairman Michael Barr, today. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was last seen at around 3 months high, trading near the 104.76 levels.

Key Movers

The EUR/USD struggled to find ground and rebound from three-month lows. The euro faced tough challenges after the seasonally adjusted Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data was published. This data showed consistency by meeting the market expectations, which weakened the Euro. The preliminary seasonally adjusted Eurozone GDP remained unchanged at 0.1% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations. The EUR/USD pair was last seen trading at 1.0726 levels.

The British pound was seen trading on the backfoot due to the softer than expected UK CPI data, which indicated a bearish economic outlook. The annual headline and core CPI rose steadily by 4% and 5.1%, respectively, while the monthly headline figure deflated significantly by 0.6%. Market players eagerly await the speech from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey to gather renewed guidance on interest rates after the latest inflation data release. The GBP/USD pair was last seen trading at 1.2555 levels. 

The USD/CAD pair fell slightly below the 1.3550 mark just before the end of the European trading session today as upbeat oil prices strengthened the CAD. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was on an upward path, extending its gains this morning to trade near the 77.42 levels. Positive comments on the oil outlook from The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretary General Al Ghais strengthened the oil price. Yesterday, General Al Ghais said that he expected a strong global economy this year with positive implications for oil demand across the globe. Market sentiment was largely down as United States inflation data cooled expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in May. Markets expect policymakers to keep interest rates in the range of 5.25-5.50% until they are confident that inflation will sustainably return to the 2% target.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/USD: 1.0717 - 1.0915 ▼
  • GBP/USD: 1.2526 - 1.2745 ▼
  • AUD/USD: 0.6475 - 0.6660 ▲
  • USD/CAD: 1.3380 - 1.3564 ▲

Written by

Justin Kapadia

OFXpert

After graduating with a Bachelor of Business Administration from Schulich School of Business in Toronto, Justin started and managed his own e-commerce business for two years. Justin’s keen interest in macroeconomics, in particular, how global events can impact currency prices led him to take on a role as a Corporate Client Associate at OFX.

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