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Risk-off undercurrent prevents AUD extending beyond 0.73

Thursday 7 October, 2021

Daily Currency Update

AUD - Australian Dollar

A risk-off undercurrent ensured the AUD remained well range-bound through trade on Wednesday, edging lower on the day and slipping below 0.7250. Equities tracked lower with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Eurostoxx 600 falling 1% amid growing concern that rising inflationary pressures, tighter monetary policy and a looming energy crisis will derail the global economic recovery. Natural gas prices surged again overnight, up some 40% before Russia stepped in with a pledge to ease supply constraints, announcing GAZPROM will supply more gas via its Ukraine pipeline. With investors chasing haven assets, the AUD fell below 0.7230, touching intraday lows at 0.7228 before finding support overnight, extending back toward 0.7280. The AUD appears firmly entrenched between the August Low and September high, bouncing between 0.7120 and 0.74 US cents amid fluctuations in risk demand. The market continues to lack conviction in direction and we anticipate further headwinds for the AUD through the near term with elevated commodity prices adding at least some support.

Key Movers

Safe-haven currencies outperformed through trade on Wednesday, capitalising on a broader risk-off shift as markets grapple with rising energy prices, consistent inflationary pressure, supply-side constraints and the prospect of tighter monetary policy. The JPY outperformed, capitalising on the risk-off tone, while the USD and CHF found support. The euro and GBP struggle to find any real momentum as the spectre of a full-blown 1970’s style energy crisis threatens to derail the economic recovery. Natural gas prices have surged higher through the last 6 months as European leaders scramble to ease supply constraints and avoid another catalyst for social unrest. Russia helped ease concerns by promising an increase in Ukraine pipeline supply, helping prices correct back to yesterday’s open, having surged up to 40% on the day. The euro plunged back below 1.16, testing a break below 1.1550, touching 1.1530 while the Great British pound slipped below 1.3550 to touch 1.3545 before edging back toward 1.36. With near term headwinds and roadblocks expected to plague the global economic recovery through the near term we expect a continued run of volatility across major currencies throughout Q4. Our attentions turn now to Friday’s all-important Non-Farm payroll print. Wednesday’s ADP private payroll print surpassed expectation and while not always a reliable indicator of labour market performance it provides some hope the September print will push above 500,000 a key mark that should trigger the Fed to announce a program of QE tapering when it meets next month.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.7180 - 0.7320 ▼
  • AUD/EUR: 0.6230 - 0.6330 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.8580 - 1.8820 ▼
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0420 - 1.0550 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.9080 - 0.9180 ▲