Aussie dollar trades below US$0.65
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Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6458 at time of writing. The Aussie dollar came under some renewed selling pressure on Friday and extends its steady intraday descent through the early part of the European session. Spot prices touch a fresh daily low following the release of weaker Chinese trade data, albeit manage to hold above the 0.6500 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling below the 0.6480 area, or the monthly low, will reaffirm the negative bias and allow the AUD/USD pair to aim back to challenge the YTD trough, around the 0.6445-0.6440 region touched in February. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 0.6400 mark en route to the next relevant support near the 0.6355-0.6350 zone. Last week the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index recorded a slight decrease, reflecting Australians’ growing concerns about their financial situations and the national economy’s future. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell by 0.9 points this week to 81.9, marking a record 62 consecutive weeks below the 85-point threshold. Despite the decline, the index remains 2.6 points higher than the same week last year and just one point below the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. The current economic environment has kept consumer confidence below 85pts for a record 62 weeks, 23 weeks longer than during the 1990s recession. Looking ahead this week and on Thursday all eyes will be on the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment Rate decision, which is expected to see the jobless rate increase from the previous month from 3.7% to 3.9%. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labour-market conditions.Key Movers
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading above the 106.00 mark, attaining its highest level since early November. The Index's upward movement is largely driven by rising US yields and a hot inflation data environment that favours the US dollar. In addition, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials expressed fewer possibilities for rate cuts this year, and an increase in hawkish bets is another driver boosting the currency. Last week, inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 3.5% on a yearly basis in March from 3.2% in February, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday. This reading came in above the market expectation of 3.4%. The annual core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.8% in the same period, matching February's increase. On a monthly basis, the CPI and the core CPI both rose 0.4%, compared to analysts' estimate of 0.3%. Gold price finished the week with modest gains of 0.59% after reaching an all-time high during the North American session on Friday. Price action was volatile as geopolitical risks sparked a flight to safe-haven assets, driving the non-yielding metal toward $2,431, a new all-time high, before retreating on overall US dollar strength. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD exchanges hands at $2,343, down 1.18%. U.S. energy shares are soaring as investors benefit from rising oil prices and a stronger-than-expected economy, while seeking to protect their portfolios from a feared resurgence of inflation. The S&P 500 energy sector is up about 17% in 2024, roughly doubling the broader index's year-to-date return. Its gains have accelerated in recent weeks, making it the S&P 500's best performing sector in the past month.Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6350 - 0.6550 ▼
- AUD/EUR: 0.5950 - 0.6150 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 1.9100 - 1.9300 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.0750 - 1.0950 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.8800 - 0.9000 ▼