Aussie dollar holds above US$0.65
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Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6508 at the time of writing. The Aussie dollar traded back down at the bottom of its multi-week range in the lower 0.6500s on Friday, after positive US data led to a reversal in the pair from its 0.6635 Thursday highs. On the data front last week the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.7% from 4.1% in February, and the number of new employees hit 116,500, a number well above the average. Both data points beat expectations of 4.0% and 40,000 respectively. A deeper dig into Australia’s labor market statistics and seasonal effects, however, suggests the incredible data in February obscured a much more modest underlying trend. Looking ahead this week and on Tuesday we will see the Westpac Consumer Sentiment a survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions, employment, and climate for major purchases. On Wednesday all eyes will be on the Australian Bureau of Statistics monthly release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.5%. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Finally, on Thursday we will see the release of the monthly Retail Sales figures.Key Movers
In the US on Friday the S&P Global Services PMI exhibited a slight decline in March, dropping to 51.7 from 52.3, slightly below the expected reading of 52.0. Conversely, the Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.5, surpassing expectations of 51.7 and the previous figure of 52.2. However, the Composite PMI showed a slight dip to 52.2 from the previous 52.5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was forced into the low side around three-quarters a percent as US equities drifted in multiple directions on Friday. Most of the US equity market’s major sectors were in the red on Friday, with Real Estate down around 1.25%, closely followed by the Financial Sector which fell 1.21%. The Communications Services Sector closed up around 0.85% as telecoms rebounded from recent selling pressure. The US economy is holding resilient with a strong labor market and inflation remaining sticky. Next week, February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) will provide additional guidance to markets.The Pound Sterling remains vulnerable against the US dollar in Friday’s early New York session as the market sentiment is quite bearish. The GBP/USD pair fails to find support as increasing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates this year outweigh February Retail Sales data, which broadly beat market expectations. The United Kingdom Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that monthly Retail Sales were unchanged after increasing by a significant 3.6% in January, a figure that was upwardly revised from 3.4%. Investors had anticipated sales to decline by 0.3%. On an annual basis, sales contracted by 0.5% against expectations of a 0.7% decline. The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2558 at the time of writing.
Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6600 ▼
- AUD/EUR: 0.5900 - 0.6100 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 1.9150 - 1.9350 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.0650 - 1.0850 ▼
- AUD/CAD: 0.8750 - 0.8950 ▼