AUD holds break above US$0.65 as attentions affixed to US/China trade talks
Daily Currency Update
The AUD outperformed through trade on Monday as the US dollar continues to relinquish ground to its major trading partners. With domestic markets closed in observance of the King’s birthday long weekend price action through the session was well contained. Having edged back below US$0.65 on Friday evening after US Non-farm payroll data printed marginally ahead of market expectation the AUD started the new week trading between US$0.6490- US$0.6510. US/China trade talks absorbed much of the markets attentions as key officials met in London. Early reporting suggests the talks have been productive with US commerce secretary Lutnick announcing the talks were “Fruitful”. The main agenda item thus far appears to be expert controls with the US agreeing to ease restrictions on the export of semi-conductors while China will release more rare earths. the de-escalation in tensions helped improve sentiment and lifted the AUD back above US$0.6520. While it was unable to extend toward last weeks 2025 high it has held onto gains above US$0.65 leading into this morning’s open.Our attentions turn now to Westpac’s domestic consumer sentiment report and NAB’s business survey, while UK labour data US small business data round out the macro ticket. US/China trade talks will continue to drive sentiment.
Key Movers
The US dollar has underperformed again when values back against other majors with the DXY index down 0.2%. Having found momentum into last weeks close after US non-farm payrolls printed marginally above expectations the USD resumed its softer trajectory Monday unable to push against a decline in US treasury yields as markets move to price in Fed rate cuts. Payrolls data allowed markets to pare back expectations for a larger rate adjustment but analyst are still pricing two full 25 point adjustments before year end. With US/China trade talks reportedly proving “Fruitful” sentiment improved through Monday. The Euro held above 1.14, tracking between 1.1390 and 1.1440, as Sterling held above 1.35 and the Yen forced a break back below 144.50 and toward 144.Our attentions today turn to UK labour data while US/China trade talks drive sentiment and underlying direction.
Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6430 - 0.6550 ▲
- AUD/EUR: 0.5650 - 0.5750 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 2.0700 - 2.0900 ▼
- AUD/NZD: 1.0750 - 1.0850 ▼
- AUD/CAD: 0.8880 - 0.8980 ▲