Daily Currency Update
The New Zealand dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.5697 at time of writing. During Friday’s session ahead of the Asian open, NZD/USD pair declined modestly. On the data front last week New Zealand's GDP expanded by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, surpassing the expected 0.4% rise, following a revised 1.1% contraction in Q3. On an annual basis, GDP contracted by 1.1%, slightly better than the forecasted 1.4% decline. Despite the economic rebound, the NZD remains under pressure due to ongoing challenges and external risks, particularly escalating trade tensions. Market expectations for policy easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remain firm, with pricing indicating around 60 basis points in rate cuts equivalent to two or three reductions by the end of the year. On the data front there are no scheduled releases in New Zealand this week.
Key Movers
The US dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, is ticking higher on Friday, helped by a wave of geopolitical unease. Despite a retreat in Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) reaffirmation of its cutting path for 2025, the Greenback gains modest ground. The index attempts to break out of the March low range for the third straight day. The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its forecast for two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2025 at the end of March policy meeting on Wednesday and gave a bump higher to its inflation projection. The outlook assists the Greenback to build on its modest recovery from a multi-month low for the third straight day and climb to a fresh weekly high. US stocks climbed into positive territory on Friday as investors weighed mixed messages from the Federal Reserve while President Donald Trump indicated he'd retain 'flexibility' when it comes to a reciprocal tariff plan set for April 2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged above the flat line while the S&P 500 rose 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%. All three major averages fell by nearly 1% earlier in the session. Most of this week's gains came after a stock market rally followed the Fed's decision on Wednesday to stay the course for two more rate cuts this year.
Expected Ranges
- NZD/USD: 0.5600 - 0.5800 ▼
- NZD/EUR: 0.5200 - 0.5400 ▼
- GBP/NZD: 2.2100 - 2.2300 ▲
- NZD/AUD: 1.0750 - 1.0950 ▲
- NZD/CAD: 0.8050 - 0.8250 ▼