Home Daily Commentaries NZD steady amid signs consumer sentiment improving

NZD steady amid signs consumer sentiment improving

Matt Richardson
Written by
Matt Richardson

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange.

| Tuesday 25 February, 2025

Daily Currency Update

Despite stronger-than-expected retail sales data, the New Zealand dollar tracked lower to start the week. Retail sales jumped near 1% in the December quarter, up half a per cent on market estimates, helping drive an uptick in Q4 GDP expectations. The stronger print and a correction in risk aversion helped the NZD enjoy early gains, pushing back toward Thursday's high, before fading through the overnight session amid a USD upswing and edging back toward Friday's close.

With little of note on today’s domestic macroeconomic agenda, our attentions turn to Euro wage data and US consumer sentiment numbers. As politics turns to peace with French President Macron in Washington to push a European agenda and ensure any resolution to the Russia/Ukraine war does not unfairly favour Russia.

Key Movers

The US dollar advanced against G10 currencies on Monday, despite an early downturn in treasury yields and softer-than-anticipated manufacturing activity. The Dallas Manufacturing Index printed short of expectations, extending the run of easier macro data prints, forcing 10-year yields back below 4.40% to 4.39%, the lowest level for 2025 before quickly reversing course and trending higher. The uptick helped drive US dollar gains through the latter half of the overnight session.

The euro made initial gains on open Monday after the centre-right bloc won the German General election on Sunday, suggesting a new government should be formed quickly. Having jumped back above 1.05 to touch 1.0528, the euro faded, giving up gains and trading back toward Friday’s close. Markets are still pricing a 25-point cut from the ECB next week with a further 80 points priced in through year-end.

Our attention now turns to Euro area wage data and US consumer confidence numbers as the headline items dominating the macroeconomic agenda.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.5680 - 0.5780 ▼
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5400 - 0.5500 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 2.1900 - 2.2100 ▼
  • NZD/AUD: 0.8980 - 0.9080 ▲
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8120 - 0.8220 ▲

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.

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