Home Daily Commentaries New Zealand dollar continues to trade below US$0.61

New Zealand dollar continues to trade below US$0.61

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand dollar is slightly stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6089 at time of writing. The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers to near 0.6090, amid the consolidation of the Greenback during the early European session on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) from 5.25% to 4.75% at its October meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. The Kiwi lost traction as markets bet on more aggressive easing in November. Swaps imply an additional 45 basis points of easing are expected at the RBNZ's November meeting. The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is likely to consolidate between 0.6050 and 0.6100. Looking ahead today and BusinessNZ will release the latest Performance of Manufacturing Index, while Statistics New Zealand will release the latest monthly Food Price Index (FPI).

Key Movers

In the US overnight, the consumer price index (CPI) or simply inflation data, rose by 2.4% in September on an annualised basis. The figure was the lowest the US has seen in the last three years, but slightly overshot analysts’ consensus views for a 2.3% rise. The monthly rate also topped expectations, coming in at a 0.2% clip from August, against calls for 0.1%. Core prices stayed elevated at 3.3% from a year ago, surpassing the 3.2% clip expected. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week jumped to its highest level in a year, which analysts are saying is more likely a result of Hurricane Helene and the Boeing machinist strike  than a broader softening in the labor market. The Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for jobless claims jumped by 33,000 to 258,000 for the week of Oct. 3. That’s the most since Aug. 5, 2023 and well above the 229,000 analysts were expecting. The four-week average of claims, which evens out some of that weekly volatility, rose by 6,750 to 231,000. The total number of Americans collecting jobless benefits rose by 42,000 to about 1.86 million for the week of Sept. 28, the highest since late July. During the first four months of 2024, applications for jobless benefits averaged just 213,000 a week before rising in May. They hit 250,000 in late July, supporting the notion that high interest rates were finally cooling a red-hot U.S. job market.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.6000 - 0.6200 ▲
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5450 - 0.5650 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 2.1350 - 2.1550 ▲
  • NZD/AUD: 1.0950 - 1.1150 ▼
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8250 - 0.8450 ▲

Written by

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market. He started his foreign exchange career with OFX more than a decade ago, as a private dealer catering to individual clients. He later transitioned to the corporate sector, assuming the position of Corporate Senior Relationship Manager. What truly excites Brett is the opportunity to engage with people, supporting their business growth and sharing in their successes.