Home Daily Commentaries NZD outperforms as Euro drags risk assets higher

NZD outperforms as Euro drags risk assets higher

Wednesday 20 July, 2022

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand dollar outperformed through trade on Tuesday, surging through 0.62 US cents amid renewed demand for risk. Strong gains across key European and US equity indices and a broader USD depreciation helped the NZD climb off intraday lows below 0.6150 to mark session highs just shy of 0.6240. Reports Gazprom will reinstate the flow of Gas following planned annual maintenance helped ease fears, further shocks to European energy supply will tip the continent into recession, while commentary from ECB officials suggests a 50-point rate adjustment is on the table. The Euro surged through the overnight session dragging the NZD with it allowing investors to shrug off another fall in global dairy prices. With direction closely tied to risk sentiment an easing in fears Europe is on the precipice of recession has helped fuel near term upside and support a break toward and above 0.6250/0.63. Our attentions remain with this week’s key risk events; critical in supporting a sustained NZD recovery.

Key Movers

The USD fell through trade on Tuesday, broadly weaker as market appetite for risk improved and the Euro maintained its recent upward momentum. Reports the ECB will consider a 50-basis point rate hike later this week fueled price action across rates markets. The ECB has previously signaled it will only consider a 25-point hike and a measured approach to monetary policy tightening. The reports lifted short term European bond rates with 2-year German bonds up 12 basis points to a 3-week high. Signals the ECB is considering a more aggressive approach to monetary policy normalisation coupled with measures to support periphery bond markets have helped lift the Euro comfortably back above parity. Having broken above 1.02 the Euro found added support in reports Gazprom will reinstate the flow of gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline as planned. While gas flow is still expected to be at a reduced capacity, ensuring Gas prices remain elevated the threat of a collapse in Europe’s Energy market has at least been avoided for now. Having touched intraday highs at 1.0267 the Euro has edged lower into this morning’s open and currently buys 1.0230. In other news the GBP underperformed, as markets showed little reaction to commentary from Bank of England Governor Mark Bailey. Bailey flagged a 50-basis point rate hike in a bid to control near term price pressures, but with inflation risks already elevated the market has previously priced in this scenario, limiting GBP upside. Our attentions remain affixed to the weeks key risk events in guiding an extended risk appetite recovery.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.6080 - 0.6280 ▲
  • NZD/EUR: 0.6020 - 0.6120 ▲
  • GBP/NZD: 1.9080 - 1.9450 ▼
  • NZD/AUD: 0.8980 - 0.9080 ▼
  • NZD/CAD: 0.7970 - 0.8070 ▲