The U.S. dollar trades lower, but it is about to touch a critical technical level.
Friday 18 October, 2019
Daily Currency UpdateUSD - United States DollarIt is a tranquil day on the economic releases front; however, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, and Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida will all speak later, which could cause the U.S. dollar to move in any direction. However, technically speaking, the U.S. dollar index seems oversold at these levels, and it is very close to testing a 200 moving average in the daily chart, which is a crucial support level. If the support is not broken, we can expect a bounce in the U.S. dollar against most of the major pairs, including the EUR/USD. If it is broken to the downside, the U.S. dollar may experience further loses.
Key MoversIn the U.K., despite the Sterling rallying when Johnson struck his deal, the big event will take place this weekend. Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party is refusing to support a Brexit deal in Brussels, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will find out tomorrow if he can gather enough votes to get it through Parliament. Boris Johnson would need to convince his party, counting on some of the rebels he got rid of last month, hard-line Brexiters, plus a few Labour lawmakers to back his deal. Everything is expected to happen by 9:30 am EST this Saturday, and because the FX market is closed on the weekends, we expect big swings in the British Pound FX pairs Sunday night EST. A Johnson defeat could unleash a political crisis that may force a general election or even a second referendum. In China, the GDP came in at 6 percent in the three months leading up to September. It was a slower pace than the 6.1 percent expected and the slowest pace since the early 1990s. China’s GDP continues struggling with the trade war and weaker domestic demand. A deceleration in investment was the main driver for the lower-than-expected GDP. Market participants did not sell off the Yuan because they are waiting to learn more about an upcoming meeting of the Communist Party's top leadership for a possible review of economic stimulus measures.
- USD/CAD: 1.3126 - 1.3160 ▲
- EUR/USD: 1.1132 - 1.1165 ▼
- GBP/USD: 1.2843 - 1.2923 ▼
- AUD/USD: 0.6818 - 0.6875 ▼
- NZD/USD: 0.6357 - 0.6389 ▼