Home Daily Commentaries The Loonie is at the mercy of the equity market and crude oil today.

The Loonie is at the mercy of the equity market and crude oil today.

Daily Currency Update

CAD - Canadian DollarCrude oil, which has fallen 1.42 percent, has not helped the Loonie this morning, which has fallen 0.6 percent. At the time of this writing, the USD/CAD is rising to 1.3300 (weaker Loonie at 0.7519). At the same time, the North American equity market is getting hammered to a monthly low as a private-sector job report in the U.S. provoked fears that the economy is struggling, which is driving more investors into haven assets such as the Japanese Yen. The Loonie usually rises when the North American equity market rises and it falls when the mood in the capital markets is negative, such as today. There are no data releases in Canada today.

Key Movers

According to Bloomberg, North Korea fired what appeared to be a submarine-based ballistic missile, escalating tensions just hours after saying it would resume stalled nuclear talks with America. In the U.K., it seems that the only option for the Brexit deal before October 31st is return to North Ireland only backstop; otherwise extension is likely. At this point, it is not clear if U.K. PM Johnson is positioning himself for a blame-game over failed negotiations. The GBP/USD pair is trading 0.05 percent higher at 1.2306 after hovering at daily lows of 1.2230 during the overnight trading session. The word from EU sources that stands out is “extension,” which is positive for the Pound. Boris Johnson will have to decide to either go for the extension or stick to his promise of, “…we leave October 31, do or die.”The U.S. dollar index is falling after the release of private sector employment numbers earlier today. This is the second day of negative news, following miserable manufacturing numbers released yesterday. According to the September ADP National Employment Report, employment in the U.S. increased by 135,000 jobs from August to September, when the previous figure from the month before was 157,000. The U.S. economy's growth rate is losing speed, prompting questions over how slow it can go and still avoid crashing into a recession.

Expected Ranges

  • USD/CAD: 1.3250 - 1.3310 ▲
  • EUR/CAD: 1.4529 - 1.4600 ▲
  • GBP/CAD: 1.6110 - 1.6508 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8888 - 0.8921 ▲
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8299 - 0.8343 ▲