Home Daily Commentaries Weak Canadian Fundamentals are Overshadowed by a Spike in Crude Oil Prices

Weak Canadian Fundamentals are Overshadowed by a Spike in Crude Oil Prices

Daily Currency Update

CAD - Canadian DollarCanadian dollar participants for the first time this week have some data to digest, we had Canadian GDP m/m for February down -0.1% from the previous of 0.3%. Finishing off the month on the Canadian economic calendar were Raw Material Price Index and Industrial Product Prices at 2.8% and 1.3% respectively. RMPI print missed expectations of 3.9% while IPP was above the consensus of 0.7% and the previous 0.3%. The loonie has gained on the greenback this week mainly on the back of USD weakness. The Dollar Index which measures the US dollar against a basket of currencies has fallen to 97.55 down 0.36% this is ahead of the most important market news of the week, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision which is announced tomorrow at 2 pm. The loonie may also see some continued upside on the back of crude oil prices which have moved 1.4% higher overnight after Saudi Arabia’s oil minister answer back to Trump's call of upping production. The minister said the kingdom is committed alongside its OPEC members and partners to reduce inventories, of interest to market participants, is the timing of an IMF report yesterday that stated Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at 85 dollars a barrel to balance its budget this year. West Texas Intermediate trades 1.6% higher this morning at 64.60 dollars per barrel.

Key Movers

The Greenback fell against a basket of currencies on Monday, slipping further from a 23-month high, as Japan began its extended Golden Week holiday. All eyes this week will be on the US central bank’s policy making board meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be followed by the release of U.S. payrolls report on Friday, which is forecasted at an increase of 185,000 jobs in April, with unemployment at 3.8%.

Expected Ranges

  • USD/CAD: 1.3419 - 1.3480 ▼
  • EUR/CAD: 1.5040 - 1.5403 ▲
  • GBP/USD: 1.7394 - 1.7515 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.9455 - 0.9509 ▼
  • NZD/CAD: 0.6654 - 0.6682 ▼
  • EUR/USD: 1.1157 - 1.1227 ▲