All eyes on RBA as AUD attempts to consolidate a break above US$0.66

Daily Currency Update

The Australian dollar edged higher through trade on Monday, consolidating gains won in the wake of last week's softer-than-expected US labour market print. With hopes the Fed will cut rates through the back half of 2024 rekindled, the AUD extended its break above US$0.66, advancing near two-tenths of a per cent to mark intraday highs just short of US$0.6640, before shifting lower and trading sideways around US$0.6620.

The AUD has been well supported since last week's FOMC policy update wherein the Fed maintained its easing bias, taking some of the heat out of the treasury market and putting downward pressure on US yields. With the labour market softening and services data pointing to a slowdown in economic activity, expectations the Fed may need to raise rates again have faltered and markets are again looking toward a rate cut before the year is out.

With pressure on the USD mounting, there is room for the AUD to extend on gains and our attentions turn to the RBA and its policy update today. We expect policymakers will leave rates on hold, although the hotter-than-expected Q1 inflation print and resilient labour market leave the door open for a hawkish statement. Despite softer activity across the economy, there is still a near-term risk of a hike in the coming months and we are keenly attuned to any commentary that may offer guidance as to future policy moves.