Aussie dollar holds above US$0.65
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Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar is relatively unchanged this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at US$0.6531 at the time of writing. The Australian dollar extended its gains on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at US$0.6557, up 0.26%. The broader outlook reveals that the bears exhibit a somewhat stronger presence, which could maintain a certain level of pressure on the pair. There were no local data releases yesterday. Looking ahead today all eyes will be on the Australian Bureau of Statistics monthly release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.5%. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. That could set back expectations for a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has kept rates unchanged at 4.35% for four straight times. The markets are of the view that the RBA’s tightening cycle is done and have priced in a rate cut later in the year. Still, the RBA hasn’t ruled out rate hikes, with inflation still well above the 2% target. Finally, on Thursday we will see the release of the monthly Retail Sales figures.Key Movers
On the data front on Monday, the US February New Home Sales dropped 0.3% MoM from a 1.7% gain in January, below the market expectations for a 2.3% MoM rise. Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey fell to -14.4 in March from the previous reading of -11.3. Overnight we saw the release of US Durable Goods Orders for February, which roundly beat expectations, according to data from the US Census Bureau. The data showed headline Durable Goods Orders rising 1.4% when 1.3% had been forecast, and Durable Goods Orders ex Defense rising 2.2% when 1.1% had been estimated. Durable Goods ex Transport also beat forecasts, coming in at 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. Finally, Nondefense Capital Goods ex-Aricraft rose 0.7% versus 0.1% expected. The US PCE report on Friday will be in the spotlight. The headline PCE is estimated to show an increase of 0.4% MoM, while the Core CPE is projected to rise by 0.3% MoM.The pound faces pressure near US$1.2650 against the US Dollar in Tuesday’s early American session as the latter rebounds. The GBP/USD pair exhibits falls as investors expect that the Bank of England will be more dovish this year than previously anticipated, driven by lower-than-anticipated inflation data in January and February. A senior Bank of England policymaker has warned that financial markets are expecting too many interest rate cuts this year and that the UK central bank is unlikely to move before the US Federal Reserve. Catherine Mann, an external member of the Bank’s rate-setting monetary policy committee (MPC), said there were risks that UK inflation could persist at higher levels than in the US or the eurozone. Last month the Bank’s monetary policy committee voted by a majority to keep interest rates at the current level of 5.25%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6430 - 0.6630 ▼
- AUD/EUR: 0.5920 - 0.6120 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 1.9200 - 1.9400 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.0760 - 1.0960 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.8760 - 0.8960 ▼