Kiwi dollar slips as traders assess US risks and global trade developments
Daily Currency Update
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is giving back some of its recent gains on Tuesday, with the NZD/USD pair edging lower to around US$0.5720 during the European trading session. This comes after the pair posted two consecutive days of advances, supported in part by a softer US Dollar (USD) and improving sentiment around US-China relations. The US Dollar remains under moderate pressure as traders assess the impact of multiple headwinds facing the US economy, including the looming threat of a federal government shutdown, persistent trade uncertainties, and a clouded monetary policy outlook. These factors have led to increased caution in the markets, contributing to bouts of volatility across major currency pairs. Despite Tuesday's pullback, the New Zealand Dollar may find renewed support in the near term as geopolitical dynamics evolve. In particular, the easing of trade tensions between the United States and China—a key trading partner for New Zealand—could provide a tailwind for the Kiwi. US President Donald Trump signaled a more conciliatory tone ahead of a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, expressing optimism about reaching a "fair deal" on trade. The prospect of reduced friction between the world’s two largest economies could bolster risk sentiment and indirectly benefit export-reliant currencies like the NZD. Looking ahead, the NZD/USD pair will likely remain sensitive to developments on the US fiscal front, as well as to any forward guidance from central banks. Market participants will also be watching for concrete outcomes from the upcoming US-China talks, which could shape risk appetite and influence demand for higher-yielding currencies.Key Movers
Gold prices plunged more than 5.5% on Tuesday, marking the metal’s steepest one-day decline since August 2020, as investors appeared to lock in profits ahead of key US inflation data. Spot gold (XAU/USD) fell sharply to around $4,114, retreating from a daily high of $4,375 and just a day after hitting a record peak of $4,380. The selloff comes amid a broader recovery in the US Dollar, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbing 0.36% to 98.94. The stronger greenback has made gold more expensive for foreign buyers, adding to downward pressure on prices. Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due for release on October 24. The data is expected to offer fresh clues on inflation trends and the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. Market expectations have shifted slightly toward continued policy easing by the Fed at its final two meetings of the year, especially after Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged signs of a weakening labor market in a speech last week. In addition to the CPI release, investors are also closely watching the upcoming Fed policy meeting next week, which could further shape the outlook for interest rates and precious metals.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged to a new all-time intraday high on Tuesday, briefly breaking above the 47,000 mark and reaching 47,126, as a wave of strong corporate earnings ignited a broad-based rally—particularly among traditional “old economy” stocks. Investors piled into companies tied to manufacturing, industrials, energy, and consumer goods—sectors often overshadowed by the high-growth technology and information services names that dominate broader market indices. The rally comes as several blue-chip firms reported quarterly earnings well above Wall Street expectations, reinforcing investor confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy despite ongoing global headwinds. The outperformance of these legacy sectors reflects a broader market shift toward value-oriented stocks amid growing speculation that interest rates may have peaked. With inflation showing signs of cooling and the Federal Reserve signaling a more cautious approach to further rate hikes, investors are seeking exposure to companies with strong balance sheets, consistent dividends, and tangible outputs. Analysts also noted that the Dow’s surge comes at a time when markets are digesting a mixed bag of macroeconomic data, including softening labor market indicators and moderating inflation, which could support a more accommodative Fed stance heading into 2026. The Dow’s milestone reinforces a narrative of renewed investor interest in economically sensitive and cyclical names—many of which had lagged during the tech-driven bull runs of recent years. With earnings season in full swing, market participants will be closely watching whether this rally in industrial and consumer-heavy stocks has legs, or if it signals a broader sector rotation in progress.
Expected Ranges
- NZD/USD: 0.5650 - 0.5850 ▼
- NZD/EUR: 0.4850 - 0.5050 ▼
- GBP/NZD: 2.3200 - 2.3400 ▲
- NZD/AUD: 1.1200 - 1.1400 ▼
- NZD/CAD: 0.7950 - 0.8150 ▼