Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6683 at time of writing. The Australian dollar last week reached a key upside target on May 16 above 0.6700 however was unable to hold on largely influenced by recent mixed economic data from China released on Friday. The AUD/USD pair is in a short-term uptrend and the pull back is likely to be a temporary correction before the uptrend continues. China's Retail Sales increased 2.3% year-over-year in April, down from March's 3.1% and falling short of the expected 3.8%. This marks the 15th consecutive month of growth in retail activity but represents the slowest uptick in this trend. Meanwhile, Industrial Production improved 6.7% YoY, surpassing the anticipated 5.5% and the previous recording of 4.5%. On the local front on Friday Australia’s Wage Price Index (QoQ) increased by 0.8% in the first quarter, falling short of the market's forecast of a 0.9% rise. This quarter's increase is the smallest since late 2022. Additionally, annual pay growth slowed slightly to 4.1%, down from the previous 4.2%, and below market expectations. Looking ahead this week on the data front and on Tuesday we will see the release of the Westpac Consumer Sentiment and the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. On Thursday we will see the release of both Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI.
Key Movers
Last week in the United States The US Department of Labor released the US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday. The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose to 222,000 for the week ending May 10, surpassing the market consensus of 220,000 but below the previous week's figure of 232,000. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerated to 0.3% month-over-month in April and came in at a lower than expected 0.4% reading. While Retail Sales flattened, falling short of the expected increase of 0.4%. Easing inflation figures sparked a risk appetite rally that sent the Dow Jones over the 40,000.00 major price handle on Thursday as investors pin their hopes and dreams on the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivering at least two rate cuts before the end of the year. Gold's price skyrocketed during the North American session ahead of the weekend as XAU/USD traded above $2,400, posting gains of more than 1.5% amid higher US Treasury bond yields. The non-yielding metal extended its advancement and threatened to crack the all-time high of $2,431.
Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6600 - 0.6800 ▼
- AUD/EUR: 0.6045 - 0.6245 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 1.8830 - 1.9030 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.9000 - 0.9200 ▼