Aussie dollar trades above 67 US cents
Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar is slightly stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback. The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its winning streak for the third consecutive day on Friday holding on to its intraday gains after the US reported the preliminary S&P PMIs from December which came in mixed. On the data front, the AUD/USD pair receives upward support from improving Australia’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for December, released by Judo Bank and S&P Global. Additionally, China's improved data contributes support to reinforcing the strength of the Australian Dollar. The preliminary Judo Bank Composite PMI has shown improvement, rising to 47.4 from the previous reading of 46.2. The Manufacturing PMI for the same period registered 47.8, a slight increase from the prior figure of 47.7. Additionally, the Services PMI grew to 47.6 compared to the previous reading of 46.0. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) kept its 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate unchanged at 2.5%, the interest rate on MLF loans is a key factor influencing liquidity conditions in the banking system. The National Bureau of Statistics of China revealed that Industrial Production (YoY) improved to 6.6% in November from 4.6% prior, exceeding the market expectation of 5.6%. However, China Retail Sales (YoY) rose to 10.1% from 7.6% prior, falling short of the market consensus of a 12.5% rise.Looking ahead this week on the data front all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on Tuesday. It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. On Wednesday the Melbourne Institute will release the Westpac Leading Index. This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation were released previously.
Key Movers
In the United States on Friday US Retail Sales (MoM) rose 0.3% in November, compared to the expected decline of 0.1%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on December 8 came in at 202K against the 220K expected. The US private sector economy, illustrated by the S&P Global Composite PMI, increased to 51.0 from November's 50.7. Despite the Manufacturing PMI slipping further into contraction at 48.2 from 49.4, the Services PMI had a small rise, reaching 51.3, up from 50.8. The outlook is still negative for the Greenback due to the growing dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) following Wednesday’s decision, which hinted at more easing than expected in 2024. Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained interest rates at 5.5% in its December policy meeting as expected. Markets are now projecting three rate cuts for 2024. Recent US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year. Both figures aligned with market consensus, indicating that inflation levels met expectations. US Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed by 0.3% MoM and 4.0% YoY, in line with expectations.Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6550 - 0.6750 ▲
- AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6200 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 1.8700 - 1.8900 ▼
- AUD/NZD: 1.0600 - 1.0800 ▼
- AUD/CAD: 0.8800 - 0.9000 ▲