AUD appears fragile at the 0.64 mark having lost some intraday momentum
Daily Currency Update
The AUD/USD pair saw a minor increase and drifted sideways throughout a mostly calm day. Having originally surged to US$0.6440 during the Asian session, it swiftly reversed course after the US dollar gained momentum and established support around US$0.6400 and US$0.6420. Market watchers are now focusing their attention on US employment and inflation data as they continue to process Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell’s remarks.Now that the AUD/USD is stable, future speeches and US figures will undoubtedly have an impact on market action. If stock markets are doing well, the Australian dollar could get some assistance over the coming hours. On the domestic data front, Australia's retail sales improved by 0.5% in July, more than predicted, following a 0.8% decrease in June. This is crucial in light of the low consumer confidence; experts have warned that consumers would probably continue to cut spending in the months to come.
Now the spotlight is on Michele Bullock, the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), who will speak today. On the US side, The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for August in the US improved, going from -20 to -17.2, according to economic statistics issued on Monday. Oncoming statistics on inflation and the labour market, such as the core Personal Consumption Expenditures on Thursday and the Non-farm Payrolls on Friday, are now the main topics of discussion.
Key Movers
Despite Monday's relatively calm waters, the US dollar managed to post losses as equities fell in the US and rose in Europe. US Treasury rates decreased, the 10-year yield dropped to 4.20%, and the US dollar Index fell toward 104.00. The Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for US economic statistics increased from -20 to -17.2, despite the fact that the specifics were not especially encouraging.The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), to be issued today, will usher in a number of labour market statistics including Friday's Non-farm Payrolls. On Thursday, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index is expected to be released. The euro slightly increased above 1.0800 and held above the 200-day Simple Moving Average. The focus now lies on today’s German Gfk Consumer Confidence poll, along with August’s preliminary inflation data coming into focus later in the week.
Being supported by improved risk sentiment, the GBP experienced a rebound following a 5-day decline, however, struggled to push above 1.2600. The Japanese yen enjoyed its highest daily close since November 2022, at 146.50, with an adjusted focus on today’s Japanese labour market figures.
Around 1.3600, the Canadian dollar held onto recent gains although there is a significant hurdle around 1.3650 - the general trend is still upward.
Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6410 - 0.6450 ▲
- AUD/EUR: 0.5930 - 0.5955 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 1.9570 - 1.9635 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.0855 - 1.0890 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.8725 - 0.8755 ▲