Daily Currency Update

Get access to our expert daily market analyses and discover how your currency has been tracking with our exchange rate tools

Kiwi boosted by US data

NZD - New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar has been aided by positive market sentiment, emanating primarily from the strong economic data filtering out of the United States since last Thursday. Strong payrolls data was compounded by a record high in the US ISM services activity survey, further evidence of a strong economic outlook globally. This has seen the New Zealand Dollar rise from 0.7020 to 0.7070. As expected, the Australian Dollar has also benefited, rising from 0.7605 to 0.7661 which has seen the AUD/NZD cross trade sideways between 1.0810 and 1.0845.

Looking to the day ahead, the main release on the docket is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy meeting for April. Markets are expecting the central bank to maintain their current monetary policy stance; a 0.1% cash rate and current anchoring of the 3 year government bond yield. Also of interest to New Zealand Dollar traders will be Chinese services PMI data for March which will provide further colour to the speed of the economic recovery in China. We are also expecting an announcement from the New Zealand government regarding a New Zealand-Australia travel bubble.

Having now rebounded off the early April low of 0.6945, an extension of recent New Zealand Dollar strength could see a test of the solid resistance visible at 0.7100.

Key Movers

As we touched on above, the main story in markets over the last few sessions has been the positive signs of economic recovery flowing out of the world’s largest economy. Interestingly, despite the bumper payrolls report and record high ISM services survey, FOMC member Mester was erring on the side of caution in his recent comments. He insisted that the Fed needs to be ‘deliberately patient’ in their monetary policy approach and pointed to the fact that although the economic outlook is improving, they are still a long way off their targets. Mester put the recent payrolls reports into context; “We’re still almost 8.5 million jobs below where we were before the pandemic. So we need more of those kind of job reports coming out to actually make more progress than we’ve seen so far”.

In currencies, risk on currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollar have been clear beneficiaries of the improvements in sentiment. The US dollar index was 0.5% lower as the S&P500 made fresh record highs. EUR/USD was up, rising from 1.1740 to 1.1820 on Monday whilst USD/JPY fell back below the key 110 handle to trade at 109.96.

In commodities, oil futures retreated 4% with copper rising nearly 4%.

Expected Ranges

NZD/USD: 0.7018 – 0.7103 ▲

NZD/EUR: 0.5940 – 0.6019 ▲

GBP/NZD: 1.9580 – 1.9817 ▲

NZD/AUD: 0.9167 – 0.9278 ▼

NZD/CAD: 0.8788 – 0.8894 ▼