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Kiwi buoyed by US dollar weakness


NZD - New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback trading around 0.6650. The New Zealand dollar has made good gains since the election last week, a majority Labour Party victory, with no reliance on the Greens to form a coalition government. NZD market movements over this past week have been volatile, however we saw a stronger Kiwi dollar against the Greenback (as expected) to 0.6690 from rates below 0.6600 before the election.

Looking ahead this week in New Zealand and there are no scheduled releases on Monday due to the Bank holiday. On Tuesday we will see the release of Trade Balance for the month of October with market forecasts -1015M from -353M the previous month. On Thursday we will see the release of ANZ Business Confidence. From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6656. We continue to expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.6645 while now any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.6690.

Key Movers

The Greenback weakened slightly against a basket of major currencies on Friday amid uncertainty over a new round of stimulus ahead of the upcoming U.S. elections, with the greenback set to record a weekly decline of around 1%. The market, pricing in a Biden victory, still expects a stimulus package by the end of the year. The US dollar is now likely to be stuck in a holding pattern in the near term, given the risk that the election could be contested. On the data front in United States on Friday we saw the release of Manufacturing PMI improved to 53.3 from 53.2, while the services PMI beat expectations by jumping to 56 from 54.6. On Monday the US will publish the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and New Home Sales both for the month of September along with the October Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. Later in the week we will see the U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product data which is due on Thursday.

Expected Ranges

NZD/USD: 0.6550 - 0.6750 ▲

NZD/EUR: 0.5530 - 0.5730 ▲

GBP/NZD: 1.9350 – 1.9550 ▼

AUD/NZD: 1.0500 - 1.0700 ▼

NZD/CAD: 0.8650 - 0.8850 ▼