NZD - New Zealand Dollar
The Coronavirus remained a key market focus and showed worrying signs of spreading globally, with a surge in cases over the last few days. On Friday the Kiwi dollar fell to a new year-to-date low of 0.6303 before a sharp rise closing around 0.6350. While against the Australian dollar the NZD/AUD pair was flat trading at 0.9580, the NZD was slightly lower on the other crosses. The rise in NZD/USD and AUD/USD will likely represent dead cat bounces if the global economic impact of the virus spreads and risk sentiment falls further.
Looking ahead today in New Zealand and we will see the release of NZ Retail Sales data for Q4 and Credit Card Spending. Later in the week, on Thursday, we will see the release of NZ Trade Balance figures and ANZ Business Confidence. From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6318. We continue to expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.6300 while now any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.6360.
The Greenback fell across the board on Friday, with the various USD indices down in the order of 0.4-0.6%, after a survey of purchasing managers showed U.S. business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors stalled in February and as investors fretted over the fast-spreading coronavirus. Services output contracted to 49.4. The Composite PMI fell to 49.6, in contraction territory for the first time since October 2013. Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 the lowest since August. In the US tonight we will see the release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.
0.6200 - 0.6400 ▼NZD/AUD:
0.9500 - 0.9700 ▲GBP/NZD:
2.0400 - 2.0600 ▲NZD/EUR:
0.5700 - 5900 ▼NZD/CAD:
0.8300 - 8500 ▼